The feature bout of UFC 321 carries major implications for the men’s bantamweight division. On Saturday night in Abu Dhabi, No. 2 Umar Nurmagomedov will face No. 9 Mario Bautista in a three-round scrap that could determine the next No. 1 contender for the 135-pound crown.
Nurmagomedov is eyeing a second shot at gold after falling short against reigning champ Merab Dvalishvili back in January — the first loss of his professional career. Bautista, meanwhile, looks to extend his eight-fight winning streak with a statement victory over one of the division’s most feared contenders.
Dvalishvili is slated to defend his belt against Petr Yan at UFC 323 in December, and the winner could have either Nurmagomedov or Bautista waiting in line.
The Russian enters as the biggest betting favorite of the night on DraftKings Sportsbook, listed at -650 on the moneyline, while the American is a +470 underdog. The total is set at 2.5 rounds. Here’s my favorite bet for Saturday night’s bantamweight showdown.
Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision (-165)
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1) broke into the UFC like a freight train. The cousin of all-time great Khabib Nurmagomedov immediately lived up to his legendary namesake, securing a submission victory in his Octagon debut in 2021. A world champion in sambo and with devastating kicks, the 29-year-old Russian contender mauled his way through the bantamweight rankings and punctuated an 18-fight win streak with a dominant unanimous decision over Cory Sandhagen in August 2024 — earning himself a shot at Dvalishvili’s throne.
Nurmagomedov gave Dvalishvili the toughest test of his career but ultimately succumbed to The Machine’s relentless pace, dropping a razor-close unanimous decision. With seven submission wins and two knockouts to his name, the Russian is hungrier than ever for another chance to cement himself as king of the bantamweights.
Mario Bautista (16-2) is the complete package — he’s just low-key about it. The 32-year-old American has quietly climbed the ranks with an eight-fight winning streak dating back to February 2022, capping the run with a pair of decision victories over Hall of Famer Jose Aldo and former Bellator champ Patchy Mix. A jiu-jitsu black belt with elite striking, Bautista has secured six submission wins and three knockouts — a formidable opponent in any scenario.
This bantamweight clash features two of the most well-rounded contenders in the division — but even so, the scale clearly tips in favor of Nurmagomedov. Consider their resumes: the Russian dismantled a proven title contender in Sandhagen, and although he fell to Dvalishvili, he performed better than anyone else against arguably the greatest bantamweight of all time.
Bautista’s winning streak is nothing to scoff at, but he has yet to face competition anywhere near the level of Saturday night’s challenge. Aldo was pushing 40, and the win over Mix has dimmed after the once highly touted prospect fell to 0-2 inside the UFC Octagon.
Nurmagomedov is still the greatest threat to Dvalishvili’s throne. While he might not secure a finish — his last stoppage came via knockout in January 2023 — expect him to go out and make a statement on Saturday night.
