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Prediction, pick for Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane at UFC 321

Prediction, pick for Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane at UFC 321

Sports Betting Picks UFC DraftKings Network

Published:

By: Ryan Wohl

For the first time in 14 months and 451 days, the greatest Heavyweight in the UFC, Tom Aspinall, returns as Undisputed Champion to take on former Interim Champion Ciryl Gane at UFC 321. Aspinall is 8-1 in the UFC with eight wins by knockout or submission and is fighting for the first time since July 2024. Gane has won two straight fights but hasn’t fought in 10 months (December 2024).

Here is my best bet for Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane at UFC 321.

Tom Aspinall to Win in Rounds 1-2 (-150)

Gane is an excellent striker and has held Interim gold in the past, but Aspinall is just on a different level. Aspinall is not only a better all-around fighter than Gane but one of the best complete fighters we have ever seen in the Heavyweight division. In the UFC Heavyweight division history, Aspinall averages the most significant strikes per minute (8.07), the most knockdowns per 15 minutes (4.09), with the best striking differential (5.18). What Aspinall has achieved inside the UFC Octagon is historic.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Aspinall is a big -345 favorite as Gane is a +270 underdog. Aspinall is -150 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, +350 via submission, and -280 to win by finish. The over/under for this bout is 1.5 rounds, with the over being -135. This fight is -900 to not go the distance.

Until someone proves they can last more than two rounds with Aspinall, it is hard to believe it is possible at this moment because of how dominant he has been. Although Gane is a former Interim champion and has fought for the Undisputed title twice, this isn’t the same version of Gane who challenged Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones.

Gane entered the Ngannou fight with a 10-0 undefeated record and was coming off a knockout over Tai Tuivasa before he fought Jones. Yes, Gane has won two consecutive fights, but his most recent was a controversial split-decision victory over Alexander Volkov. Also, Aspinall is the overall better striker in this fight as he lands 2.81 more significant strikes per minute than Gane. With that said, getting Aspinall to win in Rounds 1-2 at -150 is the best play here, considering he is a -345 favorite.

Ryan Wohl
Ryan Wohl
Ryan is a University of Arizona graduate and Philadelphia native. Since 2024, he has been a writer for DraftKings Network, primarily covering combat sports. He is a big Philly sports fan and loves to collect sneakers, as well.
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