The Patriots offense has taken huge strides forward this year with Josh McDaniels back at offensive coordinator and Drake Maye progressing well in his second year in the NFL. One element that has still been lacking, though, is the run game. The Patriots have used a committee all season, with Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson sharing time, but neither has been especially effective for fantasy.
Can you use either Patriots running back as a fantasy starter in Week 7 against the Titans? Let’s take a look at the matchup and the current division of the workload to get the fantasy football outlook for each option.
Rhamondre Stevenson fantasy football outlook
In the first few weeks of the season, the major issue in New England’s backfield was Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumble issues. He was more productive than receiving specialist Antonio Gibson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson, but coughed up the ball three times in critical situations.
Stevenson was losing time to Gibson when he had ball security issues, but Gibson (knee) was lost for the season in Week 5’s win over the Bills. Without Gibson last week, Stevenson played a season-high 72% of the team’s snaps.
While that’s a great sign for Rhamondre’s outlook, his production was extremely disappointing. He only managed 18 rushing yards on 13 carries. ESPN’s Mike Reiss reported earlier this week that Mike Vrabel thought the running backs were focused too much on ball security and not hitting the holes aggressively enough.
Stevenson is still the lead back for now in New England, but his upside seems to be limited both by his fumbling and his inability to break free for big plays. On the season, he has just 157 on 51 carries for a 3.1 yards per carry average. He has a pair of touchdowns along with 13 catches for 154 more yards, and most of that came on a 55-yard catch against the Dolphins back in Week 2.
Stevenson should find more room to work and be a solid RB3 or flex play since he’s in such a favorable matchup (more below).
TreyVeyon Henderson fantasy football outlook
Henderson has a little more sizzle than Stevenson and a higher ceiling as a result. However, he hasn’t been able to pass Rhamondre on the depth chart just yet and only played 30% of snaps last week even with Gibson out of the picture.
Henderson had more production than Stevenson, but not by much. He finished with just 27 yards on his nine carries.
Everything seems to point to Henderson being the better option than Stevenson, since he’s the better receiving back and has better upside. However, it hasn’t played out that way in terms of the production or the timeshare. In his limited work, Henderson hasn’t been much better than Stevenson, with 148 rushing yards on 41 carries (3.6 yards per carry) and 16 catches for 99 receiving yards.
Could the roles shift in Week 7? Absolutely. If Stevenson comes out early and fumbles, Henderson could take over as the primary back. If he does, he’d be a strong flex play with RB2 upside, but he also has a very low floor since his workload is so limited in his current role.
The Matchup to Attack
Whoever gets the work this week should be a good play. The Pats are in Tennessee to take on Mike Vrabel’s former team, the Titans. Tennessee is allowing 4.6 yards per rush this season, so whichever back gets the work has a very high ceiling.
The Titans have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this year, including 10 running back touchdowns and an average of 114 rushing yards and 27.5 receiving yards to the position.
The Patriots offense as a whole has looked very good lately, with Drake Maye leading an effective scoring offense the last few weeks. Points are available if either back can step up and produce.
The Bottom Line
Especially if the Patriots get an early lead on the struggling Titans, there could be lots of running back production on Sunday. Depending on how it plays out, Henderson could move pst Stevenson with a breakout game, or Stevenson could shake off his fumble and indecisive issues and use this as a “get right” matchup..
Both backs have flex upside this week because of the matchup, with Henderson bringing a slightly higher ceiling and a lower floor than Rhamondre.
For DFS contests like the NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st], Stevenson is $5,200 and Henderson is $5,100. Either one can be a flier upside, but I prefer Stevenson for cash lineups and Henderson for GPP builds, based on his higher risk and higher upside. They’re both high-risk plays, but the matchup is tantalizing enough to make them worth considering if you can handle the risk.
