One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
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SYSTEM: Marginal underdogs on the moneyline after not playing the previous day
This is a system to fade.
It’ll pop up as an A-grade system over the last seven days, with underdogs having gone 2-1 in this setting during that span. However, this has been a brutal play to start the season. In the 29 instances a marginal underdog was coming off at least one day of rest, that team went 8-21 straight up.
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Three games fit this system on Tuesday:
- CLE vs. BOS
- CHC vs. HOU
- TEX vs. SEA
Weather is a concern in Cleveland, so I’m not touching on that right now. The same can be said of Chicago, but that seems less concerning.
Either way, Logan Gilbert is the arm I want to back on Tuesday. He’s not only produced quality starts in three of his four starts, but he’s also worked into the seventh inning on each of those occasions without surrendering more than one run.
SYSTEM PICK FOR APRIL 23
SEA -115
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SYSTEM: NRFI when underdog is coming off a loss
This has been a strong play to start the season, entering at 110-82 (57.29%) to start 2024. Of late, it’s been a bit better, hitting at 59.65% (34-23) over the last seven days.
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A whopping nine games fit this system on Tuesday:
- CIN vs. PHI
- MIA at ATL
- CWS @ MIN
- KC vs. TOR
- CHC vs. HOU
- ARI @ STL
- COL vs. SD
- LAA vs. BAL
- NYM @ SF
The White Sox instantly jump out as an option. Chicago’s offense is, of course, pitiful against right-handed pitching. They’re hitting .192 with a .558 OPS against righties. Prime spot for Pablo Lopez.
Minnesota’s lineup isn’t much better, either. They have a .198 average against righties and a .623 OPS. Erick Fedde is normally someone I’d like to fade, but he’s coming off a lights-out showing vs. Kansas City. The Twins present him with an opportunity to build on that showing.
Also, this is the 20th time the White Sox find themselves in this setting. In 13 of the previous 19 instances, NRFI hit.
SYSTEM PICK FOR APRIL 23
CHW-MIN NRFI -155
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
