The last time he took the field, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had a much-needed bounce-back performance, throwing for 313 yards and two scores in a 34-27 win over the Washington Commanders that brought the Falcons back to 2-2 and cooled the second-year quarterback’s seat after some early-season struggles. Atlanta will return after its bye with a 7:15 p.m. ET clash against the 4-1 Buffalo Bills tonight on Monday Night Football.
The Falcons are 4.5-point underdogs at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 49.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around the 25-year-old southpaw.
Best Michael Penix Jr. Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Michael Penix O108.5 First-Half Passing Yards (-113)
This season, Penix has tended to start off the game hot and then cool off later on. He’s 43-for-70 (61.4%) for 485 yards, two scores, and no interceptions in the first half so far, good for a 91.7 passer rating, but after the intermission, he’s only attempted 55 passes, completing 35 (63.6%) for 433 yards, one score, and three picks, which squares out to just a 71.3 passer rating. He’s accumulated at least 109 passing yards in the first half in three of his four starts.
By rate stats, the Bills have had an solid secondary, which typically dissuades opposing signal-callers from throwing the ball. They’ve allowed the second-fewest passing yards on the third-fewest attempts, and the two teams that have allowed fewer have played one fewer game. They’ve also conceded barely half as many yards in the first half as in the second half, holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 68.6 passer rating before the break. Other metrics aren’t so kind, though; by Pro Football Focus’ grades, Buffalo has had the eighth-worst secondary this season, and it also ranks seventh-to-last in defensive EPA per play.
Michael Penix Jr. U33.5 Yards Longest Completion (-110)
Penix was somewhat of a gunslinger during his college career at the University of Washington and in his rookie season, as he averaged 10.1 intended air yards per passing attempt in his 105 throws last season. However, he has been far more conservative so far in 2025, averaging 7.9 intended air yards per passing attempt, and he ranks sixth-to-last by NFL Next Gen Stats’ aggressiveness metric. He’s also been pretty inefficient on deeper passes, ranking 20th in completed air yards per attempt, nine places worse than he’d rank if incompletions were also considered.
The Bills have done a good job limiting explosive plays this season, allowing just nine 20-plus-yard completions and zero 40-plus-yard completions so far. Plus, Penix disproportionately targets the outside, throwing a league-low 8% of his passes in the middle third of the field, where explosive plays are more likely to happen. Neither of Buffalo’s outside corners, Tre’Davious White or Christian Benford, is having a great season, but both players have allowed fewer than three yards after the catch per reception, and they’ve also missed a combined two tackles this season. Penix’s top target, Drake London, isn’t exactly known for his prowess after the catch, and the Bills have done a good job slowing down dual-threat running backs like Bijan Robinson.
