The last time the Toronto Blue Jays made the American League Championship Series was in 2016, when they fell, 4-1, to the Cleveland Guardians. They’d also lost, 4-2, to the Kansas City Royals the previous season. After three postseason appearances in the previous five seasons, Toronto is on the brink of making it to the ALCS once again. All it has to do is beat the New York Yankees one more time, which could happen as soon as the conclusion of tonight’s 8:08 p.m. ET Game 3 at Yankee Stadium.
In its third elimination game of the playoff run, New York will start southpaw Carlos Rodón. The Blue Jays will go for the sweep behind the talented right arm of Shane Bieber.
The Yankees are -168 favorites on the Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the over-under set for eight runs. Toronto is +138 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll take you through my three favorite player props from tonight’s clash.
Blue Jays at Yankees Prop Bets for Game 3
Carlos Rodón 5+ Hits Allowed (+100)
The veteran southpaw ended the season in hot form, allowing four or fewer hits in each of his last two regular season starts, as well as in the Wild Card round against the Boston Red Sox. In fact, the 6.1 hits per nine innings he allowed throughout the regular season led the American League and trailed only the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto. However, 4.5 hits is a pretty high bar to clear, and this Blue Jays offense is absolutely on fire, leading the league in batting average and hitting more homers than strikeouts in a 23-run outburst across the first two games of this series. Rodón faced Toronto twice during the regular season and gave up at least five hits in a defeat both times.
Being at home could help Rodón, as he allowed just a .154 batting average on friendly turf, but he got pretty lucky with the opponents he faced there. His most recent outings at home came against the Red Sox — who struggled offensively after losing star outfielder Roman Anthony — the impotent Chicago White Sox, and the September slumpers known as the Detroit Tigers, a far cry from the Blue Jays’ collection of bats. Plus, the bullpen isn’t exactly well-rested after Luis Gil lasted just 2.2 innings in Game 1 and Max Fried 3.0 innings in Game 2, so Yankees manager Aaron Boone might keep him in the game even if he’s not absolutely cruising.
Shane Bieber O2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-102)
Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner, made his Toronto debut on August 22 after recovering from Tommy John surgery and has made seven starts since, giving up three or more earned runs just twice and helping lead the Blue Jays to five wins. Like Rodón, he’s gotten lucky with his slate of opponents, as the only dangerous offense he’s really faced was the Milwaukee Brewers, who he shut down to the tune of two runs in 5.1 innings. His raw numbers — a 3.57 ERA in 40.1 innings — look fine.
However, all of Bieber’s advanced numbers portend a blow-up. His 4.47 FIP alone suggests that regression may be imminent, especially since Toronto has had a below-average fielding team overall this season. Plus, he had a 4.57 expected ERA and an average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate that would all rank in the league’s bottom decile if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. The Bronx Bombers got their nickname for a reason, and this season, they hit 30 more homers than any other team and just two fewer than the Dodgers at home. They also scored the most runs.
Aaron Judge O1.5 Total Bases (-119)
Judge’s playoff reputation precedes him: he has a 1.028 career regular season OPS and just a .787 mark in the postseason. During the regular season, he’s gone deep 368 times in 5,002 plate appearances, while he has 16 career homers in 283 plate appearances in the playoffs. Fundamentally, it’s not like he completely disappears in the postseason, but for a hitter who’s head and shoulders above anyone else in his generation not named Mike Trout or Shohei Ohtani, his occasional struggles are a bit confounding. He’s looked comfortable so far these playoffs, though, getting multiple hits in four of the five games and posting a 1.024 OPS.
This bet is basically one on Judge to have multiple hits, but because that’s such a rarity — even Judge only has 13 multi-hit games in his postseason career and only had 51 this regular season — approaching it from the total bases angle gives him an opportunity to cash the prop through an extra-base hit, of which he’s only had one these playoffs. No hitter is better-suited to take advantage of Bieber’s inability to avoid barrels than Judge, and Bieber’s expected .270 batting average is in the bottom quartile as well. He also throws almost exclusively four-seam fastballs and sliders against righties, and Judge was plenty effective against both pitches, posting a .288 average against sliders and a .350 mark against four-seamers.
