Baylor is off its second tough home loss of the season, this time on a game winning field goal by Arizona State. The Bears have been humming on offense, but the Sun Devils were able to slow them down a bit. On the flip side, Baylor had been leaky on defense early in the season, but probably came up with its best defensive effort in the loss last week.
Early in the week, I believed this set up as a strong bounce back spot for Baylor. Oklahoma State has simply been a doormat for the opposition, including giving up 69 points to Oregon. However, this game ultimately became a stay away for me with the firing of Mike Gundy. The longtime coach of the Cowboys is out, following an embarrassing home loss last Friday night to Tulsa — I’m still kicking myself for not taking the points with Tulsa in that one.
In theory, Baylor should be able to name its score here. We’ve seen the Bears score into the 40’s this season, including 48 in a wild overtime win at SMU. Oklahoma State has shown no resistance on defense this season, which had Baylor’s team total on my radar early in the week. If the Cowboys play the way they have so far this season, Baylor will score at will, and cash its team total of 39.5.
If you’re looking for a play in this game, the Bears on the team total would be the only way I could look. But we know the fired coach narrative can fire a team up, so it’s possible we see a completely refocused effort from the home team. That has me passing on what was an early week play for me, but if you just go by the numbers of what we have seen this season, Baylor should roll.
CFB Pick: Baylor Team Total OVER 39.5 (-115)
Check out my full CFB Week 5 betting card on DK Network right here.
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