Below you can find all my picks for College Football Week 5 with a quick handicap on the game, which will be updated throughout the week as bets are added. Our team at DK Network will have breakdowns on nearly every game on the board, so stayed locked in at the website for betting analysis on any college football game you may be interested in.
Pitt +4.5 (-110) 1-unit: Perfect spot lining up here for Pitt, as the Panthers are off a really tough loss in the Backyard Brawl. That was two weeks ago when Pitt went to Morgantown and blew a lead to lose to its rival in overtime. Now, the Panthers are motivated off a loss, and yet fresh off a bye week to prepare for a big home game. Louisville, which smoked Pitt in a road game for the Panthers last season, will be making its first road trip of the season. The Cardinals are a team I was down on heading into the season, and have yet to play a game against an opponent that would change my opinion. Louisville has lost five of its last six trips to Pittsburgh outright, and I think we see that trend continue on Saturday afternoon. In classic fashion, look for Pitt and the defense to step up at home in a bounce-back spot.
Notre Dame/Arkansas OVER 64.5 (-108) 2-units: Initially, I was not thrilled with missing a lower number on this total, with 61.5 briefly available on Sunday. After looking at angles like the Arkansas Team Total and the 1H over (both of which I still like), I’ve decided to let my frustration of missing the opener go, and play the total where it sits. This should be an absolute track meet between these two offenses, and the defenses on both sides have shown close to no resistance this season. Early in the season, Arkansas put up team totals of 52 vs. Alabama A&M and 56 vs. Arkansas State. Two weeks ago they lost 41-35 at Ole Miss with the Rebs’ playing their backup quarterback. Last week landed “just” 32-31 in a road loss to Memphis, but the Hogs somehow managed just three second half points. As a Memphis backer, I’m not complaining. Meanwhile, Notre Dame had a hyped defense in the preseason, and I was a buyer on it. I was dead wrong. We’ve seen each of the Irish’s last two games go for over 80 points — a 41-40 home loss to Texas A&M, followed by a 56-30 win over Purdue. When Purdue is dropping 30 on you, you know you have a problem. I don’t see where the stops come in this game — Taylen Green and the Hogs should be able to zip down the field in a hurry, particularly following the frustration of last week’s loss. Meanwhile, the Irish have unlocked something with CJ Carr on offense, and Arkansas has been very suspect on defense against top competition. It’s going to take some flukey plays for this game not to be played into the high 30’s to low 40’s.
Air Force Team Total OVER 29.5 (-120) 1-unit: Check out analysis for this one in my game breakdown article for Hawaii vs. Air Force on DK Network.
Penn State -3.5 (-108) 1.5-units: “We won’t know anything about this team until September 27th.” — Penn State fans. “We won’t know anything about this team until September 27th.” — Oregon fans. Welp, good news for all football fans — Saturday is September 27th, and we have one of the best slates of the season, including two of the games of the year at night. While the preseason notion of this game was that we won’t learn anything until these teams play, the betting market is telling me that bettors are buying into what we’ve seen from Oregon. Or not buying into what we’ve seen from Penn State, but either way, I have my doubts. This number was bet from -3.5 to -6.5 in the preseason, as bettors had high hopes for the Nittany Lions. Now we’re here, and both teams are undefeated as expected, and the line has dipped back to 3/3.5. That’s because the Ducks have had their foot on the gas to start the season, with 59 and 69 points in their first two games. However, since that point, Oregon’s 34-14 win at Northwestern and 41-7 victory against Oregon State have been nice, but the Ducks didn’t cover either game. Meanwhile, Penn State is getting knocked for not opening it up enough against Nevada, FIU and Villanova, despite not really having a reason to. I’m trusting my preseason handicap on this one and backing PSU at home. I like Penn State as the better team, and its coming off a bye and playing at home for a “White Out” night game — arguably the biggest home game in about eight years. Oregon had to play an in-state rival last week, and now has to go east into an absolute hornets nest. Let’s see what the Ducks are made of. I’m going to make Dante Moore and company prove it to me.
Georgia ML (-135) 2-units: This one is a different handicap than Oregon vs. Penn State, but does have one similarity. The preseason line on this game was Georgia laying 4.5 points, and both teams were expected to be 3-0 entering this game. The Bulldogs, despite playing a close game on the road at Tennessee, have done their part. However, Alabama enters at 2-1 with a loss in its only road game of the season. So the spread on this game is down through a field goal and moving towards ‘Bama? I think the Crimson Tide are a good team, and ran into an FSU team that was very underpriced as an unknown in Week 1. ‘Bama very well could lose this game and run the table and be a National Championship contender. However, I have a tough time seeing the Tide winning this game on the road. I give the coaching edge to Kirby Smart, particularly with the two weeks off to prep for this game. Alabama’s win over Wisconsin has not aged well with the Badgers falling the following week as a double-digit home favorite. I understand Georgia’s defense looked shaky in Knoxville, but this is a different ballgame in Athens. I think UGA really tightens things up on defense with two full weeks to work on it, and we could see ‘Bama revert back to closer to what we saw in Week 1 in a true road game. I trust in Gunner Stockton and the ‘Dawgs on offense, particularly after what they displayed to pullout that win at Tennessee. It’s been since October of 2019 since the Bulldogs lost a game on their home field, and I don’t see that changing on Saturday night.
Virginia +7 (-110) 1-unit (Friday): UVA has proven it can come out and score some points, averaging 45.5 points through four games with Chandler Morris under center this season. The Cavaliers have gone for 48-plus in all three home games (all wins), and scored 31 on the road in a narrow loss to NC State. Sure, FSU presents much tougher competition for the Cavs, but this will be the Seminoles first road trip of the season. Thomas Castellanos may be a little dinged up, and a Friday night road atmosphere on a short week won’t help. This is the ultimate sell-high spot on FSU. Look for a strong effort from UVA in the Friday night underdog role.
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