The spot sets up nicely for the home underdog here in the Pittsburgh Panthers. Pitt is off a really tough loss in the Backyard Brawl two weeks ago when it went to Morgantown and blew a lead to lose to its rival in overtime. Now, the Panthers are motivated off a loss, and yet fresh off a bye week to prepare for a big home game.
Louisville, which smoked Pitt in a road game for the Panthers last season, will be making its first road trip of the season. The Cardinals are a team I was down on heading into the season, and have yet to play a game against an opponent that would change my opinion. Louisville has lost five of its last six trips to Pittsburgh outright, and I think we see that trend continue on Saturday afternoon.
Pitt seems to thrive in the home underdog role, going 2-0 ATS last season, and 4-1 ATS overall as a home dog over the last two seasons combined. The Panthers dominated their two home games against lesser competition so far, going 2-0 ATS. The Cardinals have been a little shaky, though, despite a 3-0 record. Those home wins came over Eastern Kentucky, James Madison and Bowling Green, none of which they covered (0-3 ATS).
I think Eli Holstein and Pitt’s offense should be able to match Miller Moss and Louisville, with the advantage here coming on defense for the Panthers. These are two pretty even teams in my mind, so give me the more motivated, more tested team in a motivational spot. In classic fashion, look for Pitt and the defense to step up at home in a bounce-back spot.
CFB Pick: Pitt +4.5 (-110)
Check out my full CFB Week 5 betting card on DK Network right here.
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