The impossible has happened in one of the most stunning collapses in baseball history. The Cleveland Guardians trailed the Detroit Tigers by 15.5 games early in July and now lead the Tigers by one game with the series finale between the teams yet to begin at 6:40 p.m. ET. If Cleveland wins, it will effectively clinch the division, since it holds the tiebreaker over Detroit.
The Tigers will start Troy Melton, while the Guardians will counter with youngster Parker Messick.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians prediction, preview
The stunning part about Cleveland’s comeback is that its offense has been merely league-average over the last 30 days. Instead, it’s been an utterly dominant pitching staff — a league-best 2.43 ERA — that has propelled the Guardians to a 21-6 record over that span. In particular, the starting rotation has been ridiculous, allowing a 2.06 ERA this month; the last time a Cleveland starter allowed more than two earned runs came all the way back on September 4, when Logan Allen allowed three in a loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. Meanwhile, Detroit is on an eight-game losing streak and has had the league’s seventh-worst ERA and sixth-worst OPS in the last 30 days.
Much of the Guardians’ charge can be attributed to Messick, the tremendous rookie who made his debut in late August, shortly before his team began its hot streak. With the exception of one rough start at Fenway Park on September 1, he’s been un-hittable, posting a 2.08 ERA across 34.2 innings while walking five and striking out 31. He’s been particularly brilliant at Progressive Field, allowing just one run in 13 innings of work. Only one thing isn’t working in his favor: the Tigers have been far better against lefties than righties, putting up the second-best OPS against southpaws and only the 12th-best mark against righties.
Opposing Messick will be another rookie, Melton, who hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any appearance since his debut on July 23. He’s been mostly used out of the bullpen ever since, making two starts and several long relief outings. Both of those starts were elite — he gave up five hits in seven shutout innings on July 28 and one hit in five shutout innings on August 13 — and since he hasn’t pitched for four days, he should be able to offer at least a few innings. Given the state of Detroit’s bullpen, which has allowed a 5.08 ERA this month, keeping the 24-year-old flamethrower in the game for as long as he can handle might be in A.J. Hinch’s best interest.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+148)
Though the Tigers have been streaky in general throughout the second half of the season and could conceivably go on one final hot streak to end the season, everything about this team screams that they are lost. They’ll crash out of the playoff picture with a whimper.
Strong Lean: José Ramírez O1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Across the last 19 games, in which Cleveland is 17-2, Ramírez has slashed .310/.402/.577 and notched multiple total bases on 10 separate occasions, including a pair of doubles in last night’s win. Even if Ramírez doesn’t get to Melton, he should still have at least two plate appearances against the rest of Detroit’s bullpen.
