Eventually, all good things must come to an end. After 18 seasons, 227 starts, and just a 2.26 ERA, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw will pitch his final game at Dodger Stadium tonight against the San Francisco Giants. He’s still scheduled to start on the road against the Seattle Mariners next week and could well make Los Angeles’ playoff roster, but in the hearts and minds of baseball fans who watched him dominate in Chavez Ravine for nearly two decades, this is it for arguably the greatest that the sport has ever seen.
Opposing Kershaw for tonight’s 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch will be Giants ace Robbie Ray, who has surprisingly only faced him twice in 24 starts against the Dodgers, winning once.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
Despite Los Angeles’ inconsistency overall this season, it’s had San Francisco’s number, posting a 7-3 record so far this season against its biggest rival. The Dodgers managed a 2-1 win last night despite amassing just five hits thanks to dominant clutch pitching, holding the Giants to one hit and one run even though they issued 10 free passes, the second-most of the season. Though it was a discouraging display for the offense, Los Angeles is hot on that side of the ball in general, putting up the fourth-best OPS so far in September. San Francisco, meanwhile, has gone cold as of late, losing six of its last eight games to fall out of playoff contention and having just a .476 OPS across that span.
Kershaw should feel good about his chances of ending his home career on a win. Not only are the Giants in poor form, the southpaw has been dominant against San Francisco his entire career, putting up a 2.08 ERA in 62 appearances (60 starts), his best performance against any opponent against whom he started at least 10 games. He wasn’t great in his last outing against the Giants last Saturday, giving up four runs on five hits in just three innings of work, but even in his age-37 season, he’s been solid at Dodger Stadium, sporting a 3.38 ERA, and he produced seven shutout innings the last time he faced them at home. San Francisco has hit it softly all year, which should result in outs against a pitcher whose biggest strength is producing grounders.
The Dodgers have a fairly tough matchup in Ray, who’s posted his best season since he won the Cy Young Award in 2021. Still, Los Angeles got to him last Sunday for five runs on six hits and four walks in four innings of work at Oracle Park, and all in all, he’s produced just a 6.06 ERA across his last seven starts. The key for the Dodgers will be situational hitting, since plenty of runners should get aboard against a pitcher who leads the league in walks. Ray has also given up just a 10th-percentile average exit velocity and a 24th-percentile ground ball rate, which is a tough combination against a Los Angeles team that has laced the ball and hit fly balls at the league’s highest rate. Dodger Stadium has also been the league’s most homer-friendly park this season.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Clayton Kershaw to Record a Win (+200)
Kershaw has posted wins in 27 of his 60 career starts against the Giants, including on June 14, and it’d only be fair if his home career ended on another one. Plus, he’s earned the win in exactly half of his starts this season, making +200 a great value proposition.
Strong Lean: Over 6.5 Walks (-120)
Though San Francisco’s offense has been cold lately, it has drawn a lot of walks, earning the fourth-most in September. Yoshinobu Yamamoto almost hit this prop by himself yesterday, and though Kershaw has better control than Yamamoto, Ray’s control is far worse than Logan Webb’s.
