The Los Angeles Chargers had an impressive 27-21 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1. The most surprising aspect of that game was the coaching staff putting the game in Justin Herbert’s hands, and the quarterback delivered, going 25-of-34 for 318 yards and three touchdowns. That game was at home for the Chargers. Now they travel to Las Vegas, but there will be plenty of Chargers fans in the stands.
The Las Vegas Raiders went to Foxborough in Week 1 and emerged with the 20-13 victory. The Raiders could only muster 2.3 yards per rush, but Geno Smith picked up the slack, going 24-of-34 for 362 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
The Raiders defense was stout against the run, limiting New England to 3.3 yards per rush and the second-best EPA per carry at -0.27. The EPA per dropback was 12th-best, but the unit allowed Drake Maye to complete 65.2% of his passes for 287 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Justin Herbert is much better than Maye.
It will be interesting to see how the Chargers coaching staff approaches this game on offense. Was the elevated pass rate in Week 1 due to playing against Patrick Mahomes? With Geno Smith and a less-than-robust passing attack, will the Chargers go back to ground-and-pound? Last season, the Chargers were 23rd in pass rate at 55.09%.
DraftKings Sportsbook has LAC -3 over LV with the total at 46.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $750K Monday Night Showdown [$200K to 1st] (LAC @ LV)
Captain’s Picks
Omarion Hampton ($11,700 CP): In every Showdown slate, a story has to be told. The main one I’m telling for Monday night is that the Chargers go back to a more run-based offense, as I’m thinking last week’s aggression was primarily due to facing Patrick Mahomes. Hampton rushed 15 times for 48 yards last week while hauling in both targets for 13 yards. He played 80% of the snaps and had four red zone opportunities. After this game, we may all be saying while rubbing our chins, “So that’s why the Chargers used a first-round pick on Hampton.”
UTIL Plays
Chargers DST ($4,200): The Chargers only produced 2 FPTS last week, but the unit was facing Patrick Mahomes. They did rack up two sacks and produced the sixth-highest quarterback knockdown rate at 15.4%. I’m going to correlate Hampton with the Chargers defense in this one because Hampton likely only gets tons of volume if the defense controls the Raiders.
Brock Bowers ($10,400): Even though I like the Chargers defense to limit the Raiders offense, that doesn’t mean Las Vegas won’t rack up any yards. Bowers was second on the team with eight targets last week, good for five receptions and 103 yards. He only played 51% of the snaps, though, and is questionable due to a knee issue. Pete Carroll did say on Friday that he expects Bowers to play, and if he does, targets will be peppered upon him. The low snap share and Q tag could limit the ownership, which would increase the allure of Bowers.
Jakobi Meyers ($7,000): Meyers led the Raiders with 10 targets and played 94% of the snaps. He finished with eight receptions for 97 yards. I don’t think the Raiders have too much success running the ball in this one and will tilt more towards the air, with Meyers being one of the target hogs once again.
Fades
Ashton Jeanty ($11,000): Jeanty is the most expensive player on the slate, but he could only muster 38 yards on 19 carries last week while garnering only two targets. The Chargers run defense did allow the highest EPA per target by a wide margin in Week 1. The Chiefs averaged 5.8 yards per carry, but I think that was due to Patrick Mahomes being under center. I think more of the defensive focus will be on Jeanty in this one while the game script may not be favorable for Las Vegas. In addition, the Raiders have a bottom-third offensive line.
THE OUTCOME
The Chargers are a very, very good football team. They may not be as well-balanced as the Green Bay Packers but there are still plenty of ballers on both sides of the ball. The Raiders have some weapons, but there are plenty of holes that the Patriots weren’t able to expertly expose and abuse in Week 1. I think the Chargers do.
Final Score: Chargers 27, Raiders 12
