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Noche UFC Picks: Top DraftKings DFS Fantasy MMA Targets, Values for Lopes vs. Silva

Noche UFC Picks: Top DraftKings DFS Fantasy MMA Targets, Values for Lopes vs. Silva

DraftKings Fantasy Advice DFS UFC

Updated:

By: Ryan Wohl

Noche UFC is back for the third straight year, but this time it is taking place in San Antonio, Texas. Former title challenger Diego Lopes is taking on rising star Jean Silva in a five-round 145-pound Main Event fight.

The Prelims begin at 3:00 p.m. ET with the Main Card starting at 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+. Check out my favorite fighters to add to your daily fantasy lineup for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night.

Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $333K Throwdown [$100K to 1st]

Studs

Jean Silva ($9,200)

Another week, another Fighting Nerd on a UFC card. After Caio Borralho and Mauricio Ruffy came up short last week in Paris, France, the exciting MMA team from Brazil, the Fighting Nerds, has a chance to get back on track with Silva. Each member of their team has a unique ability and charisma, but Silva stands out from the pack.

He is 5-0 in the UFC with five finishes and has won 13 straight bouts, with 12 of them coming via KO/TKO or submission. Silva is definitely the most well-rounded fighter on his team, having legit finishing ability on the feet and on the ground.

At 28 years old, Silva seems like a real title contender, and if he can get past Lopes, he could be next in line for the reigning Featherweight king, Alexander Volkanovski. Although Lopes is taller by four inches (5’11” vs. 5’7″) with a three-inch reach advantage (72″ vs. 69″), Silva is the better all-around fighter. Silva averages 1.17 more significant strikes per minute while being five percent more accurate. Also, on the ground, Silva lands more takedowns (0.60 vs. 0.30) at a higher rate (50% vs. 40%) while having a better takedown defensive rate (86% vs. 67%).

Silva has scored 100-plus fantasy points in three of his five UFC fights and totaled 92 in his last fight against Bryce Mitchell. Lopes is Silva’s best opponent of his career so far, but with Silva continuing to improve, he is an excellent addition to your lineup.


Alexander Hernandez ($8,400)

In the past 11 months, Alexander Hernandez has gone 3-0 and is coming off his best win to date, a first-round knockout against Chase Hooper at UFC 319. Just 28 days later, Hernandez is back to take on veteran Diego Ferreira in a three-round lightweight bout. After winning two straight fights, Ferreira suffered a loss to Grant Dawson at UFC 311 in his previous contest.

After beating a young rising prospect in Hooper, Hernandez now has a chance to add someone with much more experience to his resume. This fight is very close on paper, with both athletes standing 5’9″, as Ferreira holds a two-inch larger reach (74″ vs. 72″). Both fighters are close to even on the feet, with Hernandez having the most significant advantage on the ground. Hernandez averages 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes, and even though it isn’t a ton, it is still better than Ferreira’s.

Hernandez is coming off a 107 fantasy point performance, his first time surpassing 100 points since October 2021. After some ups and downs, Hernandez seems to be putting it all together, finally, and has been displaying the best version of himself. In his last two fights, Hernandez has totaled 91 and 107 points. When Hernandez is aggressive and brings the fight to his opponent, he has plenty of potential at 155 pounds.

Value Play

Rodrigo Sezinando ($7,400)

The Welterweight finale for Season 33 of The Ultimate Fighter is now taking place at Noche UFC on Saturday. This fight was previously expected to take place on August 16 but was later moved. Sezinando is taking on Daniil Donchenko in a three-round 170-pound bout.

This contest is opening up the card, and Sezinando is a +180 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Sezinando comes from Nova União, an MMA gym in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, which is also the home of former UFC Champion, Jose Aldo. Since Sezinando suffered his first loss in 2022, he has won six straight fights, with four of them coming by finish.

His opponent, Donchenko, is 11-2 with nine finishes and is also on a six-fight win streak. The difference in this contest is Sezinando’s versatile skillset, since he has four knockouts and three submissions in his career. Since Sezinando is coming off a split decision win against Jeff Creighton, it will likely motivate him to begin this fight more quickly. At only $7,400, Sezinando can provide your lineup with great value at such a low price.

Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $300K Throwdown [$100K to 1st]

Ryan Wohl

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.