Our National Nightmare is over. Football is back, baby! There are 12 games on the main slate, with eight early games and four in the afternoon.
Week 1 is always fun because the pricing is soft, the excitement is palpable and we once again learn that we do not in fact know anything.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook on Thursday, eight games have spreads of three points or less. The biggest favorite is Denver at home over Tennessee by 8.5 points. Eight games have a total of at least 45 points, with BAL/BUF the highest at 50.5 points. The lowest total is the PIT/NYJ game at 38.5 points. There are seven home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans ($6,300) – Nix did not start his rookie season well, throwing two interceptions in each of the first two games and failing to hit 20 FPTS in the first four contests. He finished the season with seven games over 20 FPTS, including a high of 33.5 FPTS. Nix completed 66.3% of his passes for 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He also rushed 92 times for 430 yards and four touchdowns.
Nix now has a year of experience under his belt, the offense was upgraded with new weapons, and the opening night matchup at home is a good one. The Titans allowed the eighth-highest EPA per carry and the 12th-highest EPA per dropback. Tennessee also allowed the sixth-most rushing yards by a quarterback last season.
Denver is the biggest favorite on the slate at 8.5 points, and there could be some game-script concerns. Last season, though, Nix had two of his biggest fantasy games in blowouts. In Week 11 against the Atlanta Falcons, Denver won 38-6, and Nix finished with 28.8 FPTS. In the season finale against the Kansas City Chiefs’ B Team, Denver won 38-0, and Nix put up a season-high 33.5 FPTS.
I have some concerns with Jayden Daniels against the New York Giants defense and Joe Burrow against the Cleveland Browns defense. I think Nix has a similar ceiling to those players at a discount.
Other Options – Baker Mayfield ($6,600)
Value
Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins ($5,100) – I hate myself for this recommendation, and I am feeling physically sick. There are reasons why Jones is no longer a New York Giant. He kind of stinks. Jones has thrown more than 20 touchdowns in a season just once in six seasons, and that was in his rookie campaign. That said, he has rushing prowess and carried 120 times for 708 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022. Jones is starting, is very cheap, has rushing equity, and could put up 20 FPTS. The Dolphins defense was stout in pass defense last season but porous against the run. Oh, and the secondary also lost a ton of pieces.
Other Options – Trevor Lawrence ($5,300), Drake Maye ($5,500), Michael Penix Jr. ($5,600), Bryce Young ($5,700)
Running Back
Stud
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8,000) – Robinson is one of the best dual-threat running backs in the league. The 72 targets last season were the fourth-most at the position. He also rushed 304 times for 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns, leading the team with 66 red zone opportunities. In the final six games of last season, Robinson garnered a snap share of at least 75% in all six contests — three of those with at least 85%, and a high of 91%. He put up at least 20 FPTS 10 times last season.
Other Options – Christian McCaffrey ($7,300), Bucky Irving ($7,100), Jonathan Taylor ($6,800), Josh Jacobs ($6,700), Kyren Williams ($6,500), Alvin Kamara ($6,300)
Value
Nick Chubb, Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams ($5,200) – He’s lost a step. The offensive line is bad. He doesn’t catch passes. Blah blah blah. I think reports of Chubb’s demise are premature. Obviously, only time will tell, but the opportunity is going to be there with Joe Mixon injured. Woody Marks has been talked about positively in the offseason, but he’s still a rookie. The Texans still boast explosive weapons on offense. That offensive line? It’s still bad, but Mixon rushed for 1,016 yards and 11 touchdowns last season behind a porous line as well. Finally, the Rams weren’t great at stopping the run last season, allowing the ninth-highest EPA per carry.
Other Options – Chubba Hubbard ($6,000), Kenneth Walker III ($5,900), Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5,600), J. K. Dobbins ($5,500), TreVeyon Henderson ($5,500), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400), Trey Benson ($4,600), Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($4,000)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,500) – This game has a decent total of 46.5 points with a spread of 1.5 points. The Falcons are a dog in their home opener. Woof woof! Both defenses are susceptible, and there’s a chance this becomes a back-and-forth affair. I recommended Robinson in the running back section, but London isn’t too far behind on the offensive totem pole for Atlanta. Last season, London garnered 158 targets, the third-most among wide receivers.
Other Options – Puka Nacua ($7,600), Nico Collins ($7,400), Malik Nabers ($7,000), Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,800), Mike Evans ($6,600), Davante Adams ($6,100)
Value
Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons ($4,600) – Egbuka will likely be the highest-rostered player on the slate. He is just too cheap for the expected role and volume. With Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan out with injuries, Evans and Egbuka should soak up most of the targets in the passing game. Egbuka was hailed as pro-ready coming out of the draft, and there’s been nothing but praise over the offseason regarding his IQ, skills, and work ethic. As mentioned in the London section, there’s a chance this game has plenty of points.
Other Options – Courtland Sutton ($6,000), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,800), Jerry Jeudy ($5,400), Deebo Samuel ($5,200), Jakobi Meyers ($5,100), Travis Hunter ($5,000), Matthew Golden ($4,900), Marvin Mims Jr. ($4,500), Ricky Pearsall ($4,500), Kayshon Boutte ($3,800), Malik Washington ($3,200), Tory Horton ($3,000)
Tight End
Stud
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($4,700) – In 2023, Njoku played four games with Joe Flacco under center. In those contests, he caught 28 of 39 targets for 373 yards and four touchdowns. He had one game with 14 targets, catching 10 for 104 yards and a touchdown. Flacco is 40 years old now, so there is uncertainty as to his effectiveness, but I feel confident that he will pepper Njoku with plenty of targets. The matchup could be fantastic, as the Bengals allowed the second-most FPTS to tight ends last season.
Other Options – Brock Bowers ($6,500), Trey McBride ($6,200), George Kittle ($5,800), Tyler Warren ($4,400)
Value
Ja’Tavion Sanders, Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,900) – This game has a total of 46.5 points, with the Jaguars favored by 3.5 points. I’m bullish about the Jaguars’ offense this season, so I think there’s a chance the Panthers will have to tilt more toward the air in this one to keep up. Sanders only out-targeted Tommy Tremble 43–32 last season, but that was his rookie season, and Tremble is still recovering from offseason back surgery. Jacksonville allowed the ninth-most FPTS to tight ends last season.
Other Options – Tucker Kraft ($4,000), Hunter Henry ($3,900), Cade Otton ($3,800), Chig Okonkwo ($3,400), Brenton Strange ($3,300), Theo Johnson ($3,000)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Broncos DST vs. Tennessee Titans ($3,800) – Last season, the Broncos DST was one of the best in the NFL. The unit allowed the second-fewest yards per play, racked up the seventh-most turnovers, and had the most sacks. They were fourth in quarterback knockdown rate and second in pressure rate. The Titans have the 24th-rated offensive line heading into the season with a rookie quarterback making his debut in Mile High. Ruh roh.
Other Options – Cardinals DST ($3,500)
Value
Browns DST vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($2,300) – The Browns defense was bad last season, but the 41 sacks were the 13th-most in the league. The unit was bolstered in the offseason with the additions of defensive tackles Maliek Collins (free agency) and Mason Graham (draft). Myles Garrett screams off the edge, while Denzel Ward is a Pro Bowl cornerback. These teams are intimately familiar with each other, and in two games against the Bengals last season, the Browns DST held them to 21 and 24 points, finishing with six and three FPTS. The unit racked up three sacks in the first meeting and four sacks with a fumble recovery in the second matchup.
Other Options – Colts DST ($2,800), Giants DST ($23,00)
