The Philadelphia Eagles had the second-best record last season at 14-3 and the second-best point differential of +160. The offense had the sixth-best EPA per dropback and the third-best EPA per carry. The defense notched the second-best EPA per dropback and fifth-best EPA per carry. The Eagles were one of the most balanced teams in the NFL and it culminated in a Super Bowl victory.
The 2025 title defense begins at home against the divisional rival Dallas Cowboys.
Philadelphia clobbered Dallas in two meetings last season – 34-6 and 41-7. Cooper Rush started both of those contests, though, as Dak Prescott only played eight games due to injury.
Prescott is back and the offense was bolstered with the acquisition of wide receiver George Pickens. Last season, the EPA per dropback was -0.14, the fourth-lowest mark. With a healthy Prescott in 2023, the EPA per dropback was 0.15, the second-best mark. With a suspect depth chart at running back, Dallas should be throwing early and often, especially since the best offensive players are Prescott and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.
Another reason why the Cowboys will likely tilt towards the air is the defense, or potential lack thereof. The Cowboys defense was fourth in pressure rate last season, but they traded away Micah Parsons, the man responsible for much of that pressure. The rush defense was the worst but could be better with the acquistion of defensive tackle Kenny Clark, new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus and an offense that could potentially move the chains. Better doesn’t necessarily mean good.
That said, the Eagles boast the best offensive line according to PFF entering the season and they will ground and pound a defense to death. Last season, Philadelphia had the lowest pass rate at 43.71%.
DraftKings Sportsbook has PHI -8.5 over DAL with the total at 47.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Thursday Kickoff Millionaire [$1M to 1st, TD Throne Eligible] (DAL @ PHI)
Captain’s Picks
Dak Prescott ($13,500 CP): Philadelphia has a stout run defense, while Dallas has an uninspiring group of running backs with a suspect offensive line. In addition, the Eagles’ offense should do what they do, which is move the ball and put up points. There will be no bashing the head into a brick wall for Dallas in this one. Prescott is going to be orchestrating the offense, and if Dallas has any chance in this game, it will be from Prescott slicing and dicing. For some rays of optimism, in 2023, Prescott had success against the Eagles, going 29-of-44 for 374 yards and three touchdowns (31.4 FPTS) in the first meeting and then followed that up with 24-of-39 for 271 yards and two touchdowns (18.9 FPTS).
UTIL Plays
Jaydon Blue ($5,000): Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders are atop the depth chart, but they are more grinders and geared for early-down work. As mentioned above, I don’t think Dallas will choose to ram into a brick wall often. Blue is a rookie but will likely be the third-down back. He is also the most explosive of the bunch, running a 4.38 40-yard dash and can take it to the house on any play. He has had fumbling issues and we don’t know exactly how the Cowboys will utilize him, but the upside is worth the risk.
***Editor’s note: Cowboys RB Jaydon Blue will be inactive for tonight’s game vs. the Eagles, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter via X.
Jalen Hurts ($11,000): Hurts attempted at least 30 passes last season only five times, with four of those in the first four games of the season. Despite the lack of pass attempts, Hurts still put up over 20 FPTS 10 times last season, with three over 30 FPTS. It’s the rushing and tush push which provide the nice floor and access to a high ceiling. If Prescott can put up points, Hurts could be forced to drop back more often. Any increase in volume is a good thing.
George Pickens ($8,000): Do I prefer CeeDee Lamb? Of course, but we are dealing with a salary cap, so choices have to be made. I do want both quarterbacks in this one, so rostering Lamb is a difficult proposition. Pickens won’t see the volume that Lamb will get, but he should see more one-on-one coverage and has the athleticism to take it to the house on any given play. Cornerback Kaiir Elam performed well in the offseason and was talked about positively, but Pickens is a beast at 6′ 3″, 200 pounds with a 4.47 40-yard dash.
Fades
Saquon Barkley ($11,200): It’s very difficult fading Barkley because he’s awesome, the Eagles have the best offensive line and Dallas was one of the worst run defenses last season. That said, Barkley is the most expensive player on the slate and he’s not too heavily involved in the pass game. Can he rush for three touchdowns and put up over 30 FPTS? Absolutely. It’s something he did eight times last season, with two of those over 40 FPTS! It’s also within the range of outcomes that he puts up yardage, but only catches a few passes while Hurts scores a few tush pushes or throws the touchdowns. Last season, Barkley finished with fewer than 20 FPTS nine times, with three of those in the single-digits.
THE OUTCOME
The Eagles winning the chip last season was no fluke. They are the most balanced team and have playmakers on both sides of the ball. Dallas has some offensive pieces that could make this interesting, but there are too many holes to have any faith that they can pull off the upset.
Final Score: Cowboys 24, Eagles 33
