Two straight wins have gotten the Phillies back on track. Still, the NL East leaders need every win they can get to earn home-field advantage. That won’t be so easy on Saturday against Atlanta. Although the Braves are well below .500, they’ll be welcoming back ace Chris Sale. Which of these rivals should bettors back tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between the Braves and the Phillies.
The Phillies are favorites (-144) over the Braves, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Braves vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Zack Wheeler’s season-ending injury has shaken up a once-dominant Phillies pitching staff. Fortunately for Philadelphia, there’s still a few arms capable of delivering a phenomenal outing. That includes Cristopher Sanchez, arguably the most underrated hurler in the National League. Over 162.1 innings of work, the All-Star has notched a 2.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 173 strikeouts. Most impressive has been the Dominican’s consistency. Sanchez has allowed four or more runs in just three of his 26 appearances.
Despite Atlanta’s mediocre 61-74 record, facing this offense is no cakewalk. Since the All-Star break, the Braves have scored 211 total runs, fourth-most in all of baseball. Six active hitters in this lineup have a wRC+ over 100. That includes former MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. (166 wRC+) and standout first baseman Matt Olson (130 wRC+). When Sanchez last faced Atlanta on May 29th, he managed to toss 5.2 innings of two-run ball.
Offensive production is no guarantee for the Braves tonight. Still, the team has a shot whenever Chris Sale is on the mound. It’s been more than two months since the reigning NL Cy Young last took the field. Since he suffered a rib fracture on June 18th, Atlanta’s rotation has shuffled through several uninspiring veterans. There’s likely to be some rust for the 36-year-old in his first game back. Regardless, Sale remains one of the sport’s most dominant pitchers. Over 89.1 innings this season, he’s recorded a 2.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 ratio.
Coming off the injured list to face this Phillies lineup is quite the challenge, even for an experienced arm. Still, a crafty southpaw such as Sale should never be counted out. This month, Philadelphia’s hitters have posted a middling .248 batting average vs. left-handed pitchers. That number, while not terrible, is only the league’s 15th-best mark during that time. When Sale last faced the Phillies on May 29th, he tossed six scoreless innings at Citizens Bank Park.
Braves vs. Phillies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Braves vs. Phillies under 3.5 total runs – 1st 5 innings (+100)
It’s difficult to trust the Braves given their lackluster bullpen. Still, Sale is not someone bettors should ever count out. In a lost season, Atlanta will likely play it safe with the veteran; don’t expect more than 80 pitches. On the other side, Sanchez has a stellar 2.96 ERA over his last eight outings. Expect both starters to dominate early on Saturday night.
