At 77-56, the Blue Jays are on track for their first American League East title in nearly a decade. However, Toronto still trails Detroit for possession of the American League’s best record, and home-field advantage in the playoffs. The stakes are far less higher for the Twins, currently in the midst of a rebuild. However, Minnesota pulled off a 7-5 win on Tuesday. Can the visitors deliver another upset tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s battle between the Twins and the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays are favorites (-194) over the Twins, with the over/under set at nine runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Twins vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
In a rotation filled with former All-Stars, Eric Lauer has a claim as Toronto’s most consistent pitcher. Through 88.0 innings of work, the southpaw has notched a 2.76 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 87 strikeouts. It’s not the largest sample size, but the 30-year-old is clearly having the best season of his career. It helps that he’s been incredibly consistent as of late. Since the start of July, Lauer has surrendered two runs or less in seven of his eight outings. When pitching at Rogers Centre, he owns a stellar 2.45 ERA.
It’s fair to assume that a letdown start is coming for Lauer. As good as the veteran has been, it’s not realistic to assume a career journeyman will continue dealing. With that being said, Wednesday’s matchup doesn’t look very intimidating. The Twins sold off most of their best hitters last month. That’s left All-Star Byron Buxton with not much else in terms of lineup protection. Just four other hitters on this offense have recorded a wRC+ above 100. In addition, Minnesota is hitting .200 against left-handed pitchers this month, the fourth-worst mark in baseball.
Clearly, hitting might be difficult for the Twins. On the mound, things might not be much better. Simeon Woods-Richardson is slated to pitch for the visitors, his 17th start of the year. His numbers are fine, albeit not outstanding (4.24 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). That might not be enough to slow down his opposition tonight. When playing at home, the Blue Jays are averaging the league’s second-most runs per game (5.34). In addition, Toronto leads baseball with 1,216 total hits this season. SWR’s tendency to put runners on might come back to haunt him against a lineup that makes consistent contact. When the righty last faced the Jays in 2024, he coughed up five runs over 4.1 innings.
Twins vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+105)
This isn’t the most value-packed line, but it makes sense. Toronto’s offense is an assembly line, which spells trouble for the inconsistent Woods-Richardson. On the other side, Lauer is more than capable of mowing down this depleted Twins lineup. Expect the Jays to come out firing tonight after a disappointing loss on Tuesday.
