“Past performance does not guarantee future results” is a disclaimer buried in most financial marketing material. And it is an apt expression because variables and strategies are constantly changing while black swans appear when least expected. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has written often that results are often a matter of luck or a bout of randomness.
When dissecting the coaching results of brothers John and Jim Harbaugh, there seems to be little luck or randomness in their results. John Harbaugh has coached the Baltimore Ravens for 17 years with only two losing seasons over that span. Jim Harbaugh has never had a losing record in five NFL seasons with much success at the college ranks. And their styles have been similar.
Jim took over a 5-12 Chargers team and immediately guided them to an 11-6 record.
But what’s been good for the Chargers has not necessarily provided a robust fantasy environment, especially for the passing game. Harbaugh’s modus operandi has been to be physical and fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball, leading to a more conservative brand of football.
Chargers target share overview
Justin Herbert was selected with the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft. He immediately paid dividends for the Chargers, as he completed 66.6% of his passes during his rookie season for 4,336 yards, 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The pass rate was 58.65%, 17th in the NFL.
The Chargers finished 7-9 and wholesale changes were made to the coaching staff. Brandon Staley replaced Anthony Lynn at head coach while Joe Lombardi took over for Shane Steichen as offensive coordinator.
The pass rate spiked to 62.5%, fifth in the NFL. Herbert threw 672 times for 5,014 yards, 38 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. In 2022, the pass rate was 65.09%, second-highest in the league. Herbert threw 699 times for 4,739 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Kellen Moore was brought in to take the offense to the next level in 2023, and the pass rate was 61.03% (sixth), but Herbert suffered an injury and played only 13 games. The Chargers finished 5-12 and wholesale changes were made once again. Harbaugh took over as the captain of the ship while Greg Roman was brought in to lead the offense.
Roman has been an offensive coordinator in the NFL for 11 seasons — four seasons with the 49ers, two seasons with the Bills, four seasons with the Ravens and one season with the Chargers.
Over that span, his offenses have ranked 20th or lower in pass rate in all of those campaigns, with eight of those seasons ranked 30th or below. The quarterbacks under center for those seasons were Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, Lamar Jackson and Herbert. Herbert is the only one that’s not considered a dual-threat, but he did rush 69 times for 306 yards and two touchdowns last season.
Last season, the Chargers were 23rd in pass rate at 55.09%. Herbert attempted fewer than 30 passes in seven of the first nine games, with two games under 20 pass attempts. For the rest of the season, he attempted over 30 passes in all but one game.
Part of that had to do with running back J.K. Dobbins succumbing to injury and the lack of options behind him. The other part is Herbert and the coaching staff getting comfortable with each other.
Well, the Chargers addressed the former, drafting running back Omarion Hampton in the first round and signing running back Najee Harris in free agency.
The offensive line was rated 10th-best by PFF earlier in the offseason, but that was before the season-ending injury to left tackle Rashawn Slater. That may force a tilt more toward the run than what was already expected to be.
Herbert and the passing game for the Chargers will likely resemble the early days of Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh — elite efficiency on limited volume.
Last season, 66.5% of the targets went to wide receivers (sixth), 11.3% to running backs (31st) and 22.2% to tight ends.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Los Angeles this season.
Wide receivers
Last season, rookie Ladd McConkey led the team with 112 targets and a 24.5% target share. Targets are earned, and McConkey certainly earned them last season. He has size at 6-feet and 186 pounds, and has speed, running a 4.39 40-yard dash. McConkey has draft pedigree, having been selected in the second round of the 2024 draft. He had two drops, a 92.1% catch rate and 31.6% dominator rating, per Player Profiler. According to Fantasy Points, McConkey had the eighth-best separation score last season. The passing pie may not be huge in Los Angeles, but McConkey is going to get a big portion of it.
Quentin Johnston finished with 91 targets and a 21.7% target share. His snaps and target share will likely plummet this season, as the Chargers brought back Keenan Allen and selected Tre Harris in the second round of the 2025 draft.
Joshua Palmer had 65 targets last season, but he is now in Buffalo.
Allen is 33 years old, but he still garnered a 27.2% target share last season in Chicago and finished with 121 targets. I doubt he sees a target share in the high-20s, but somewhere in the low-20s seems palatable.
The Chargers utilized 11 personnel at the 22nd-highest rate last season (56.24%). They used 22 personnel at the second-highest rate (9.05%), behind the Baltimore Ravens. Shocking. Twenty one personnel was used the fifth-most by the Chargers at 16.03%. I wouldn’t be shocked if the 11 personnel usage dips below 50% this season.
Tight ends
Will Dissly led the group with 64 targets and a 15.1% target share. Dissly should sit atop the depth chart once again, but the Chargers acquired Tyler Conklin in the offseason and drafted Oronde Gadsden in the fifth round of the 2025 draft.
Conklin received 72 targets last season with the Jets. In the prior three seasons, he garned exactly 87 targets in each of those campaigns. Conklin won’t be running down the seams for chunk plays. Instead, he will be a reliable option in the belly of defenses.
Dissly will likely see a decrease in target share with Conkin in the mix. Both should see a target share around 10 percent.
Gadsden is 6’5″, 243 pounds and runs a 4.72 40-yard dash. He’s made plays in the offseason, but the position is a difficult one for most rookies, so I don’t see him making a significant impact this season.
Running backs
Dobbins led the group with 38 targets and a 10.2% target share. He is now in Denver.
Harris and Hampton should soak up most of the snaps and targets at the position.
Harris is dealing with an eye injury and his status is unknown for Week 1. In four seasons with the Steelers, Harris never missed a game and garnered 233 total targets. His rookie campaign saw a whopping 94 targets.
Hampton is 6-foot, 221 pounds and runs a 4.46 40-yard dash. He was selected with the 22nd overall pick in the 2025 draft. He had an 11.2% target share in college.
As long as Harris is healthy, both he and Hampton will likely split all the running back duties. The pass-catching duties may not be robust, though, as Herbert had the eighth-lowest checkdown rate on third and fourth downs last season, per PFF. In addition, only 11.3% of the Chargers targets went to running backs last season, the second-lowest mark in the NFL.
