There are nine MLB games on the slate for Saturday, with the first starting at 7:05 p.m. EST. Here are three value picks for the slate. This article is written before the actual lineups come out, so keep track of updates throughout the day.
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SP Jeffrey Springs, Athletics at Seattle Mariners, $7,600
The range of outcomes has been extremely wide for Springs this season. He has four games with negative FPTS but has produced eight games with over 20 FPTS, including a high of 33.1. Recent form hasn’t been great, with 3.3 and -1.3 FPTS in the last two starts. That said, he’s faced Seattle twice this season, putting up 11.05 and 27.7 FPTS — four starts ago. Both of those games were in Sacramento.
Saturday’s game is in Seattle, which is known as a pitcher’s park. Springs has been better on the road than at home, with a FIP of 4.3 compared to 5.19 at home.
Springs only averages 90.7 mph on the fastball, but the swinging strike rate is 11.1%, and he’s done an excellent job of limiting hard contact. The average exit velocity is 88.3 mph, the barrel rate is 8%, and the hard-hit rate is 37%.
3B/OF Willi Castro, Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels, $3,300
Castro hasn’t been playing every day, but he’s been in the lineup often, playing a variety of positions. Writing this piece before lineups are announced is tough, but we make do with what we have.
I want to stack against Victor Mederos, but most of the other Cubs are expensive. In his brief MLB career, Mederos has a serious walk problem. Through 13 innings this season, the walk rate is 16.1%. The chase rate is a laughable 16.9%. That should benefit Castro, who has a respectable 8.2% walk rate and is in the 72nd percentile for sprint speed. It’s not earth-shattering, but enough to notch nine steals this season. Castro had 33 stolen bases two seasons ago. Castro also has a little pop in his bat with a .157 ISO.
OF Alex Call, Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, $3,200
Since being acquired from the Washington Nationals, Call has received 38 plate appearances and hit a home run, two doubles, and stolen a base. The walk rate is 15.8%, the strikeout rate is 21.1%, and the ISO is .161. He’s been fortunate, as the BABIP is an elevated .364, so the slash of .290/.405/.452 is likely unsustainable.
Call has been better against left-handed pitching, hitting three of the four home runs on the season. The ISO is .157 vs. .096 against righties.
Saturday’s starter for the Padres, Nestor Cortes, is a lefty who’s started three games since returning from injury.
