Andy Reid plus Patrick Mahomes equals double-digit wins during the regular season, playoff appearances, and three Lombardi Trophies. Must be nice.
Since 2018, the first year with Mahomes as the starter, the Chiefs have been top 10 in pass rate every season. Last season was the only time that number was below 60%.
Travis Kelce is another year older, and an unrestricted free agent next season. The wide receiver group has exciting and dynamic talents, but will they be on the field to make an impact?
Chiefs target share overview
In Mahomes’ first season as a starter, he led the league with 9.58 average yards per attempt. That number has gone down every season, except for that magical 2022 season when Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards, 41 touchdowns, and had an AY/A of 8.53. In three of the last four seasons, the AY/A has been below 7.
Mahomes threw at least two touchdowns for every interception his first three seasons in the league — 14/7, 8/2, and 10/3. Over the last four seasons, it’s been under 2-to-1 every year — 7/6, 9/5, 3/7, and 7/5. The Chiefs have still dominated, though, almost completing the three-peat last season.
It’s been well documented that defenses have been employing more coverages with both safeties deep, forcing Mahomes to matriculate down the field with dinks and dunks, and last season was the first time the Chiefs rushed more than 40% of the time. Not surprisingly, the Chiefs faced split safeties on 227 pass attempts last season, per Next Gen Stats. That was the lowest number since 2019.
The chess match never stops, as offensive and defensive coordinators constantly look for ways to checkmate each other.
In the offseason, Reid and Mahomes said that the Chiefs want to start passing deep again. They have now had four seasons to tinker and lab things, but the biggest reasons may be the declining play of Travis Kelce, the possible suspension of Rashee Rice, and the emergence of Xavier Worthy.
There are plenty of question marks regarding the pass catchers and overall scheme, but the one thing we do know is that Reid is going to put the ball into Mahomes’ hands.
Last season, 49.7% of the targets went to wide receivers (fourth-lowest), 16.5% to running backs, and 33.7% to tight ends (second-most).
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Kansas City this season.
Wide receivers
Last season, Xavier Worthy led the group with 98 targets and a 17.2% target share. The season started off slowly for the rookie, with three, four, four, and four targets. To end the regular season, Worthy garnered 11, 11, and nine targets, and in the playoffs, he received six, seven, and eight targets. Rashee Rice only played four games and Marquise Brown only played two games, but Worthy performed when given the opportunity and has likely earned a target share north of 20% for 2025.
DeAndre Hopkins was second with 59 targets. He is now in Baltimore.
Rashee Rice only played three games last season, but garnered 29 targets and a 25.7% target share. He’s not a burner — more of a contested catch savant in the middle of the field. Rice is still recovering from knee surgery from the Week 4 injury last season. In addition, a possible suspension could be forthcoming.
If he’s unable to go, Jalen Royals would likely fill in for Rice. Royals was selected in the fourth round of the 2025 draft and is a Rice clone at 6′ and 205 pounds. He is faster, though, but he would not soak up all of the vacated target share.
Marquise Brown is 5’9″, 166 pounds and is a burner with a 4.32 40-yard dash. He only played two games last season due to a sternoclavicular injury. In those two games, Brown had a 19% target share with a measly 3.7 aDOT.
Tight ends
Travis Kelce led the Chiefs with 133 targets and a 24.1% target share. The numbers weren’t pretty last season. The 14.2 Rec EPA was the lowest mark by a wide margin. The prior low was 41.9. The EPA per route was 0.03, while the EPA per target was 0.11 — both career-lows. The yards per target of 6.2 was a career low by almost two yards. This is potentially his last season in Kansas City, so maybe that provides some extra juice. In addition, Kelce still garnered 133 targets last season and hauled in 97 receptions. The only time he’s had a target share below 20% was during his rookie season, when he was at 18%.
Running backs
Samaje Perine and Kareem Hunt finished with 35 and 32 targets last season. Perine had a 6.1% target share, while Hunt was at 6.8%. Hunt is still on the roster, while Perine is with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Isiah Pacheco only played seven games last season and had a 6.5% target share. In 2023, that number was 9.9%. A healthy Pacheco will likely see around a 10% target share once again.
Brashard Smith was selected in the seventh round of the 2025 draft. He has some pass-catching chops but likely won’t make a significant impact. That said, he does run a 4.39 40-yard dash, and garnered an 11.7% target share in college.
