Over the last three seasons, the Steelers have ranked 28th, 28th and 20th in pass rate. It’s Pittsburgh. They play stout defense and pound the rock, right? Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season by being conservative, yeah? Well, the defense has been a staple in Pittsburgh, but the offense has taken a variety of forms in the Tomlin era.
Just four seasons ago, their pass rate of 63.44% was second-highest in the NFL. The year before that, the Steelers once again passed at the second-highest rate at 65.48%. To Tomlin’s credit, he put the offense in the hands of Ben Roethlisberger.
Well, after trotting out Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Kenny Picket, Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky over the last two seasons, the Steelers acquired Aaron Rodgers to guide the offense. Pittsburgh also replaced George Pickens with DK Metcalf at wide receiver and added Jonnu Smith at tight end.
Will the Steelers again become one of the pass-happiest teams in the league?
Steelers target share overview
In the 20-year career of Aaron Rodgers, he’s played at least 10 games in 14 of those seasons. The pass rank was below 20th just twice. Most of the time, the Packers were middle of the pack in the 56% to 58% range, but the pass rate was top-10 three times, with first and second finishes in 2016 and 2018. Last season with the New York Jets, the pass rate was 64.06%, fourth-highest in the NFL.
Arthur Smith was the offensive coordinator for the Steelers last season and he’s back for 2025. Pittsburgh was 28th in pass rate last season. In his six-year NFL coaching career — three as an offensive coordinator and three as a head coach — his teams have ranked 28th, 29th, 31st, eighth, 30th and 30th in pass rate. That eighth-ranked season was the 2021 one in Atlanta with Matt Ryan at quarterback. The Falcons defense was 29th in points allowed, which forced the pass-heavy script.
The Steelers have a good defense, so it’s highly unlikely that Rodgers gets up to a 60% pass rate again. More than likely, he will land in the mid-50% range, but it’s within the range of outcomes that the run/pass ratio is closer to 50/50.
Pittsburgh has the 21st-ranked offensive line per PFF primarily due to the youth, but there’s a chance this unit performs better as they continue to get experience and gel.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Pittsburgh this season.
Wide receivers
Last year, George Pickens led the Steelers with 103 targets and a 26.5% target share. He is now in Dallas.
DK Metcalf was brought in and will replace Pickens on the offensive totem pole. Last season in Seattle, Metcalf garnered a 21.3% target share. If Metcalf earns the trust of Rodgers, that number could spike because Rodgers has been known to pepper his BFFs with targets galore.
Calvin Austin finished with 58 targets and a 12.6% target share last season. The 5-foot-8, 170 pound Austin ran most of his routes from the slot last season, but he did show prowess on the outside. Pittsburgh utilized 11 personnel 51.06% of the time last season, the 26th-most.
Robert Woods signed a one-year contract with the Steelers, but he’s 33 years old and started four of 15 games last season for the Houston Texans, garnering only 30 targets.
Tight ends
Pat Freiermuth had 78 targets and a 17% target share last season. He received 14 red zone looks last season. Last season in New York, Rodgers gave tight ends 13 red zone looks. In Green Bay, when there was a competent tight end, Rodgers gave them double-digit looks in the red zone per season. Rodgers has targeted tight ends in general around 17% of the time.
The big question mark at the position is how much of a target share will newly acquired Jonnu Smith garner?
Smith had a 20% target share with the Miami Dolphins last season, but he was in the nine to 15 percent range for the rest of his career. He has played for Arthur Smith in three seasons. During those campaigns, Smith had a target share of 13.8%, 15.3% and 11.1%.
Pittsburgh utilized 12 personnel 25.25% of the time last season, the 12th-most.
Running backs
Najee Harris saw 48 targets last season. Jaylen Warren saw 47. The target share for Harris was 10.4% while it was 10.2% for Warren.
Harris is now in Los Angeles with the Chargers, which means Warren should soak up most of the passing game duties at the position.
Kaleb Johnson was selected in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft, but the reports haven’t been too flattering so far.
There’s a chance that Warren could garner more snaps, which would increase the probability for more targets and a higher target share. Warren’s target share last season was 14th-best among running backs. Alvin Kamara led the way with a 21.5% target share. Breece Hall was fourth with a 13.8% target share.
