Since Baltimore selected Lamar Jackson with the last pick of the first round in the 2018 NFL draft, the Ravens have made the playoffs and had a winning record in six of seven seasons. The outlier was in 2021, when Baltimore finished 8-9 due to Jackson missing the final portion of the regular season due to an ankle injury.
The passing rate ranks since Jackson became quarterback have been 30th, 32nd, 32nd, 22nd, 30th, 32nd and 31st. That ain’t changing.
Ravens target share overview
Stability and consistency have been hallmarks in Baltimore for quite some time. John Harbaugh has been the head man since 2008, winning a Super Bowl in 2012 and making the playoffs in 12 of 17 seasons. Todd Monken has been the offensive coordinator for two seasons, while the defense has been top 10 in points allowed in all but four seasons in the current Harbaugh era.
The defense did slip a bit from their dominating ways in 2023, especially on the back end. That said, the unit still finished top 10 in points allowed while allowing the third-most pass attempts. The draft was utilized to bolster the secondary with first-round selection, safety Malaki Starks. Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie was acquired via free agency.
The rush defense will likely continue to be stout. If the pass defense improves, that could allow more possessions for the offense. Unfortunately, that would likely mean more ground-and-pound, but could sprinkle in a few more shots down the field.
The offensive line is ranked 17th by PFF heading into the season, so there are questions. With Jackson and Derrick Henry in the backfield, though, it shouldn’t prohibit the Ravens from doing what they want to do, which is maul opposing defensive fronts.
It’s safe to say that the passing pie will be small. Only twice in the Jackson era have the total team targets exceeded 500. Over the last three seasons, that number has been 457, 476 and 465. Interestingly, the target distribution has morphed.
Back in 2022, 42.6% of the targets went to wide receivers while tight ends led the way at 43.9%. In 2023, wide receivers garnered 60.3% of the targets while the share for tight ends plummeted to 23.1%. Last season, 52.1% went to wide receivers while tight ends bounced back to 30.2%. The running backs have seen a steady increase, going from 13.5% to 16.6% and 17.7% last season.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Baltimore this season.
Wide receivers
Zay Flowers led the Ravens with 116 targets and a 25.7% target share last season. Rashod Bateman was second with 72 targets and a 15.9% target share.
The Ravens acquired DeAndre Hopkins, who is 33 years old and garnered a 14.5% target share with the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs last season. He had a whopping 27.8% target share with the Titans in 2023, when he finished with 75 receptions on 137 targets for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns. Those days are long gone in the past, but he still makes for an excellent chain mover and contested catcher.
There is a huge conundrum for this group. Baltimore utilized 11 personnel at the lowest rate in the league last season at 27.77%. Flowers played both in the slot and outside last season, but Hopkins and Bateman could potentially start in two-receiver sets. That said, how can you keep Flowers off the field?
I think Baltimore figures out a way to get their best playmakers on the field, but there is a chance that Flowers or Bateman sees a decrease in snaps.
Tight ends
Mark Andrews had 69 targets and a 15.3% target share last season, while Isaiah Likely finished with 58 targets and a 13.8% target share. In the prior five seasons, Andrews garnered a target share over 20% in each of those campaigns, with a high of 29% in 2022.
Andrews is 29 years old and in the final year of his contract. Likely flashed early last season, but wasn’t able to push up to the next level. That said, the 25-year-old is set up to be the next great thing at tight end for the Ravens. Unfortunately, he underwent surgery to repair a broken bone in his foot back in late July and is expected to miss around six weeks.
Andrews struggled at times last season, but there’s a chance he gets back up to a 20% target share while Likely is out.
Running backs
Justice Hill led the group with 51 targets and a 12.5% target share. Derrick Henry finished with 22 targets and a 4.9% target share. Keaton Mitchell is back after a leg injury. In eight 2023 games, Mitchell garnered a 4.9% target share.
Hill is likely going to be the passing-down back. You’d think that’d be unappealing with Jackson being a dual-threat quarterback and the Ravens being a run-first team, but Jackson actually had the ninth-highest checkdown rate in 2024 at 11.1%.
