Roman Dolidze is taking on Anthony Hernandez in the Main Event of this week’s UFC Fight Night. A flyweight matchup between Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne is taking place in the co-main event of this card.
Along with traditional sports betting and daily fantasy, you can now have more action than ever for UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez. Check out DraftKings UFC Pick6! Here are my favorite picks for Saturday’s UFC card.
Roman Dolidze More Than 40.5 Significant Strikes
Dolidze is coming off a phenomenal performance against Marvin Vettori, where he finished with 141 significant strikes. Although Hernandez is the more efficient striker, Dolidze does have the power advantage on the feet. In this matchup, Dolidze has the physical advantage, standing two inches taller (6’2″ vs. 6’0″) with an inch edge in reach (76″ vs. 75″).
He is at his best when he is in a pure striking matchup, but that will likely not be the case against Hernandez. But even though it will be difficult, Dolidze should be able to surpass 40.5 significant strikes in this five-round contest. Dolidze excels when he puts out a high striking output while landing big power shots.
Steve Erceg More Than 45.5 Significant Strikes
Although “Astroboy” Steve Erceg has lost three straight fights, he is in a perfect position to return to elite form against Ode Osbourne. Erceg has had a grueling schedule recently, as he fought Alexander Pantoja, Kai Kara-France, and Brandon Moreno in his previous three contests.
Even though he is coming off a loss to the former champion in Moreno, Erceg still recorded 116 significant strikes against him. Erceg has totaled more than 45.4 significant strikes in three of his last five bouts, with three performances of at least 74 points. Osbourne is talented, but is not on the same level as Erceg, even when he is at his best.
Erceg has lacked urgency lately, and that needs to change if he wants to get in the win column. With four of his last six fights lasting at least three rounds, he should easily total more than 45.5 significant strikes.
Christian Leroy Duncan More Than 1:30 Control Time
Christian Leroy Duncan has won three of his last four fights and is facing veteran Eryk Anders on Saturday. Leroy Duncan has all the tools to control this fight with his four-inch reach advantage. He has totaled more than 1:30 of control time in four straight fights and is coming off a contest with 5:36 of control time.
Leroy Duncan is the younger fighter by eight years, and although he doesn’t have as much UFC experience, he should be able to wear Anders down throughout the contest. Even though Leroy Duncan doesn’t excel on the ground, he can use the clinch to add to his control time total.
Iasmin Lucindo More Than 1.5 Takedowns
The third fight from the top features a top 15 women’s strawweight fight between No. 8 Iasmin Lucindo vs. No. 12 Angela Hill. Lucindo lost her last fight against Amanda Lemos but won four straight before that. Hill is the better striker in this contest, but Lucindo has the advantage on the ground.
Lucindo averages over two takedowns per 15 minutes at a 60 percent rate and has had two-plus takedowns in four of her previous five contests. She must utilize her reach advantage to take control of the fight and bring the bout to the mat, as Hill is a much more advanced striker on the feet.
Eryk Anders More Than 38.5 Fantasy Points
Anders is a big underdog against Leroy Duncan and faces an uphill battle to secure a victory on Saturday. But scoring more than 38.5 fantasy points is a different story. Anders is coming off scoring 94.4 and 114.5 fantasy points in back-to-back fights.
He has also reached this total in points in each of his last five contests. Anders averages 3.54 significant strikes per minute while having a 50 percent defensive rate. Anders needs to push the pace while not allowing Leroy Duncan to land multiple significant combinations.
Jean Matsumoto More Than 81.5 Fantasy Points
Jean Matsumoto is coming off a split-decision loss to Rob Font in February, but had won 16 fights in a row previously. Now he draws a favorable matchup against Miles Johns. Matsumoto is the better all-around fighter in this contest and can dominate on the feet or the ground.
Getting him to record more than 81.5 fantasy points is a good play, considering he has hit that mark in two of his three UFC fights. If Matsumoto is more aggressive than he was against Font, a finish, along with an above-average fantasy performance, is likely.
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Create a Pick Set
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