The PGA TOUR playoffs start this week with the FedEx St. Jude Classic. This is the first of three playoff events that ultimately will decide who wins the FedEx Cup as the leader in the points race at the end of the season, and it features a 69-man field with all of the top players on the PGA, outside of Rory McIlroy, who chose to rest for the final two events.
The event is played at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, a tighter par 70 that is played around tree-lined fairways and some man-made water traps. It can be a very difficult course when the greens are firm and the wind is up and plays somewhat similar to some of the courses we see early in the season in Florida. This week, the temperatures are expected to be hot (in the 90F range), although winds are expected to be low for the most part.
I wrote more about TPC Southwind and the traits it will take to succeed at this venue in this week’s FedEx St. Jude Classic PGA DFS Cheat Sheet.
“Southwind isn’t an overly long course, but it has tight fairways, smaller greens and numerous doglegs that really stretch out some of the holes. Water also comes into play on seven of the holes and can pressure players into bailing out on approaches or tee shots to avoid a penalty. On average, fairways here are 5-7% harder to hit than an average PGA TOUR stop, with greens being equally tough to find. The course has produced winners at, 17, 16 and 13 under par the last three seasons and played as the 14th-toughest course on the PGA TOUR (out of 41) in 2020, yielding a 69.56 scoring average.
As a traditional par 70, TPC Southwind has just two par 5s, which play as the two easiest holes on the course. The 16th will be reachable in two by almost everyone and is probably the only hole on the course where players will lose ground if they don’t walk away with at least a birdie. The course features four par 3s as well, two of which play as “island-style” greens. As for the par 4s, there are six of them that measure in at 450 yards or longer, and only two that come in under 400 yards. While this might not faze players given today’s technology, the doglegs on several of these holes mean longer approaches are often necessary to reach the smaller-than-normal greens. Despite the doglegs, several of these par 4s still play tough off the tee with water in play on either side, meaning accurate players will be rewarded this week.”
DraftKings Pick6 has full tournament totals up for this week, so I’ll again be focusing on FULL TOURNAMENT totals, specifically finishing positions (“Better Than” or “Worse Than”), but also the holes played market, which essentially acts as a “make or miss the cut” question.
Top DraftKings Pick6 Picks for the FedEx St. Jude Championship
Wyndham Clark Better Than 34.5 Finishing Position
I do think Clark is one of the better values this week in all formats for fantasy, including Pick6 on DraftKings. His 34.5 finishing total is 10+ spots above players he has vastly outperformed of late. While he can be a little wild off the tee (which could be troublesome this week), Clark has been hitting his irons very well of late and recently took T-4 at the Open. He also finished T-12 in Minnesota in his last start on another course that features plenty of water, and he gained over 9.5 strokes on approach there.
Given that he’s had plenty of good results on similar courses (second TPC Sawgrass and Bermuda) and also finished T-7 at this venue last season, I can’t see any reason not to be bullish on him at this value.
Keegan Bradley Worse Than 29.5 Finishing Position
It’s been a great season for Bradley, who took home his second Travelers title just last month in Hartford. However, with the Ryder Cup on the horizon, you get the feeling that his future results may be taking a bit of a backseat. The weight of the Ryder Cup captaincy may have even started to show last week when he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship and lost over 3.0 strokes on approach in the process.
Normally a very accurate ball-striker, if Bradley isn’t hitting it well, he’s not a player you should be trusting around these accuracy-driven venues, as the rest of the game is rarely good enough to bail him out. I like playing the narrative that his focus is elsewhere right now and trusting the data from last week, which says fading him in this spot is the right move.
Collin Morikawa Better Than 23.5 Finishing Position
Morikawa is debuting a new caddie this week, his fifth of the season. It’s a little troublesome from a continuity perspective, but the American had a bad time overseas with his last caddie and seems hellbent on finding the right person for a long-term fit. The good news for him is that the wind is down this week, and he’s back on a course in TPC Southwind that will play to his strengths. Still one of the most accurate strikers of the ball on TOUR, Morikawa has played Southwind each of the past three seasons and finished T-22 or better on each attempt, a run that includes a T-5 from 2022.
While the recent results from overseas don’t look great, he was hitting it well the month prior and undoubtedly is focused on securing a couple of good finishes to ensure he gets picked to be on the Ryder Cup squad. Overall, with his totals above 20.0 for this event for Pick6 play, I see this as an ideal time to “buy the dip” and be bullish on Morikawa for this week.
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