The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history, and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $800K Summer Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
The field this week comprises only the top-70 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings, and no alternates or qualifiers will be added to the field. After this event, only the top-50 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will qualify for the next event (the BMW Championship), so a good week is needed by any player entering this tournament outside of the top-50. As for the field, we have one of the strongest of the year outside of the majors. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler are all set to return after extended absences after the Open Championship. Rory McIlroy has opted to take the week off and rest up for the final two legs. With Rory out, the field is now set at 69 golfers.
This event used to be a regular PGA TOUR stop (also called the St. Jude), and TPC Southwind has been a familiar location on the PGA TOUR for over a decade. Since this tournament has been cut down to 70 players, there is no additional cut, meaning all 70 players will get to play the weekend—assuming they don’t withdraw or get DQ’d. This is big for DFS purposes and will mean you can take a few more chances when targeting players lower down in the salary range.
The Course
TPC Southwind—Memphis, Tennessee
Par 70, 7,237; Greens: Bermuda
TPC Southwind is a tricky, tree-lined PGA TOUR venue that features plenty of water and smaller-than-average Bermuda greens. The venue shares some similarities to other recent courses like TPC River Highlands (Travelers) and Harbour Town GC (RBC Heritage), but it is most comparable to the Florida courses we see early in the season at venues like PGA National and Copperhead.
Southwind isn’t an overly long course, but it has tight fairways, smaller greens and numerous doglegs that really stretch out some of the holes. Water also comes into play on seven of the holes and can pressure players into bailing out on approaches or tee shots to avoid a penalty. On average, fairways here are 5-7% harder to hit than an average PGA TOUR stop, with greens being equally tough to find. The course has produced winners at, 17, 16 and 13 under par the last three seasons and played as the 14th toughest course on the PGA TOUR (out of 41) in 2020, yielding a 69.56 scoring average.
As a traditional par 70, TPC Southwind has just two par 5s, which play as the two easiest holes on the course. The 16th will be reachable in two by almost everyone and is probably the only hole on the course where players will lose ground if they don’t walk away with at least a birdie. The course features four par 3s as well, two of which play as “island-style” greens. As for the par 4s, there are six of them that measure in at 450 yards or longer, and only two that come in under 400 yards. While this might not faze players given today’s technology, the doglegs on several of these holes mean longer approaches are often necessary to reach the smaller-than-normal greens. Despite the doglegs, several of these par 4s still play tough off the tee with water in play on either side, meaning accurate players will be rewarded this week.
With so much water in play, TPC Southwind always sees some of the highest “balls hit in water” rates on the PGA TOUR. The water and narrow fairways put a premium on ball-striking. For research, Strokes Gained: Approach, GIR%, and Fairways Gained stats are where you should start when narrowing down your player pool this week.
2025 outlook: The weather this year looks very hot. Highs will be in the low 90s on all four days, and there is little to no rain expected after Tuesday. That means a very fast, baked-out course will be in front of the players this week, where solid around-the-green play may be needed. Southwind is already an accuracy-driven venue, but with the course playing firm, the need for accuracy should only be magnified this week as any off-kilter shots will have a great shot at rolling off greens or through fairways. With a limited field, there isn’t likely to be a huge wave split develop this week, but morning starters on the first two days will likely have the advantage of dealing with a slightly more receptive course.
Last 4 winners
2024–Hideki Matsuyama -17 (over Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland)
2023—Lucas Glover -16 (over Patrick Cantlay playoff)
2022—Will Zalatoris -15 (over Sepp Straka playoff)
2021—Abraham Ancer -15 (over Hideki Matsuyama and Sam Burns playoff)
**This event has been played at TPC Southwind for the last four years
Winning Trends
Nine out of the last 14 winners of this event finished T-22 or better in their previous start before winning.
Nine of the last 11 winners of this event (the first FedEx Cup playoff event) have finished T-15 or better at one of the year’s final two majors.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Hideki Matsuyama (2024—17-under-par)
Lead in form (T66-MC-T23-T6-T8)
SG: OTT—+2.1
SG: APP—+5.7
SG: TTG—+4.6
SG: ATG—-3.3
SG: PUTT—+8.2
- In 2021, Abraham Ancer won the WGC event played at Southwind and was top 10 in strokes gained approach.
- In 2022, Will Zalatoris was even better in that category, gaining 7.7 strokes on approach and over 9.0 strokes tee to green.
- In 2020, the course played a little tougher, and Justin Thomas beat the field by multiple strokes, despite losing strokes to the field on the greens. He gained over 13 strokes Tee to Green for the week and was third in SG: Approach and second in SG: Around the Green.
- Thomas’ win was a stark contrast to 2019 when Brooks Koepka won at Southwind and gained 9.3 strokes putting for the week. Brooks ranked just 11th in SG: Approach, but he also won the event by three strokes.
- This was somewhat similar to what Hideki Matsuyama did in 2024, as he lost 3.3 strokes ATG but gained over 8.0 strokes putting and over 5.0 strokes on approach in his win.
- Players landing inside the top 20 and upwards have generally outpaced the field in greens hit as well as fairways gained throughout the week. While there will always be outliers like Koepka’s volatile putting week from 2019 or Matsuyama last year losing multiple strokes ATG, strong tee-to-green play is essential at TPC Southwind and the most likely route for success this week.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Cameron Young +4000 and $8,200
Comparables:
- Corey Conners +3500 and $8,500
- Aaron Rai +3500 and $8,300
- Harris English +4000 and $8,400
Jordan Spieth +4500 and $7,600
Comparables:
- J.J. Spaun +4500 and $7,700
- Chris Gotterup +4500 and $8,000
- Robert MacIntyre +4500 and $7,700
Horses for Courses (TPC Southwind)
1. Hideki Matsuyama (best finishes: win- 2024; 2nd-2021; T16-2023): Matsuyama has played this venue six of the last seven seasons and gained over 1.4 strokes on approach in his last three appearances. In 2021, when he finished second, he gained over 8.0 strokes on approach alone, and last year in his win, he gained over 8.0 strokes putting.
2. Justin Thomas (best finishes: win-2020; T13-2022): Thomas has been solid at this venue throughout his career. He won at Southwind when it hosted a WGC event in 2020 and finished a solid T-13 at this venue in 2022, gaining over 3.0 strokes off the tee.
3. Matt Fitzpatrick (best finishes: T5- 2022, T6-2020, T4-2019): Fitzpatrick was in the hunt for the win after three rounds in 2020 but faltered on Sunday. He gained an incredible +10 strokes putting in 2020 and has finished top 10 at Southwind in three of the last five years.
RECENT FORM
1. Scottie Scheffler ($13,000; win-T8): It’s hard not to like Scheffler to grab another win this week. On top of being the best golfer on the planet, this sort of target style setup has suited him the best as he has multiple wins at the very similar TPC Sawgrass.
2. Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,700; T8-T4-T4): Fitzpatrick kept things rolling nicely last week at the Wyndham, landing his fourth straight top-10 finish in a row. In terms of momentum, few of the top players have it going better than he does right now.
3. Russell Henley ($10,000; T10-T4-T10): Henley is coming off a top-10 finish at the Open Championship, his second straight top-10 finish at that event and his second straight top-10 finish at a major championship. It’s hard not to like him for DFS this week, but he is priced up.
4. Aaron Rai ($8,500; T5-T34): Rai has started to turn things around with his ball-striking after he gained over 10 strokes on approach at the Wyndham last week. He’ll need his putter to show up in Memphis, but he’s now made five cuts in a row and peaking at the right time.
5. Chris Kirk ($7,200; T5-T14): Kirk is another veteran player who looks to be peaking at the right moment as the playoffs begin. He played himself into the top 70 last week with a great final two rounds and has been gaining big on approach. At under 7.5k, he looks like a decent value to chase this week.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Kirk and Griffin look solid
If you’re playing low variance formats, then starting with Scottie Scheffler ($13,000) feels like somewhat of a must this week. Starting with him at 13k isn’t easy, but players like Ben Griffin ($8,100) and Chris Kirk ($7,200) certainly make things easier this week. Both players set up great for TPC Southwind and are two of the best at hitting it close with their wedges and converting with their putters (or off the green). Both look somewhat undervalued this week, given their recent form, and are great players to build around in DFS. Denny McCarthy ($7,400) and Brian Harman ($7,300) are two other names to consider in the low 7k range.
Tournaments: Aberg the wildcard
It’s hard to say if Ludvig Aberg’s ($9,500) game is where he needs it to be to win on a course like TPC Southwind, but certainly the Swede showed at the Open and the Scottish that his top form is close. If not for one disastrous mistake on Sunday at Portrush, he likely would have finished inside the top 15 or even top 10 there, but instead had to settle for a T-22. He’s certainly capable of challenging anyone in this field, including Scheffler, if he’s at his best. Further down, Shane Lowry ($7,400) is a name who has popped at times this season and seems likely to be lower owned this week, making him a nice pivot play in the mid-7k range. Further than that, Nick Taylor ($6,900), Sungjae Im ($6,800) and Patrick Rodgers ($6,100 – see below) all set up as potential cheap GPP options.
MY PICK: Wyndham Clark ($7,600)
Clark looks pretty undervalued this week in DFS. The American is coming off his best stretch of the season, having landed three top-12 finishes in a row, including a T-4 at the Open Championship. While he never really competed for the win at the Open, Clark still managed to turn that result into another nice finish at the 3M Open, where he finished T-12 and gained an eye-opening 9.6 strokes on approach.
While he is a big hitter, Clark has also handled these tricky, water-ridden courses rather well in his time on the PGA, landing a win at Pebble Beach in 2024 and top-three finishes at Bay Hill, Sawgrass and Hilton Head — all of which are great comp courses for TPC Southwind. While he hasn’t been the most consistent player this season, at just $7,600, it’s hard to argue that there is better upside available at his range this week.
For DFS, he makes for the perfect value to build core and GPP lineups around, and for betting, his outright (+5500) and Top 10 numbers (+400) on the DraftKings Sportsbook stick out as great value targets.
MY SLEEPER: Patrick Rodgers ($6,100)
Rodgers played himself into the Top 70 last week at the Wyndham Championship with a T-15 finish that saw him shoot 63 in Round 2 and 65 in Round 4. Typically, with Rodgers, that would have meant he putted the lights out, but what was interesting about his week at Sedgefield was how well he hit his irons. Rodgers was actually one of the leaders in Strokes Gained Approach stats at Sedgefield, gaining 10.1 strokes for the week, and over 1.0 strokes on approach in each round.
Rodgers had missed six cuts coming into last week, so there is reason to be skeptical, but at the same time, this time of year is all about momentum, and we have seen past winners of the St. Jude like Lucas Glover, Abraham Ancer and Will Zalatoris all turn very solid weeks at the Wyndham (or the Olympics in Ancer’s case) into wins at this event.
In any case, with four rounds guaranteed, Rodgers looks like the kind of deep value you want to use for big field GPPs this week, as any follow-up with his irons will likely lead to some fantasy goodness. For betting, he’s +400 for a top 20 and +1200 for a Top 10 on the DraftKings Sportsbook, making him an ideal ladder target for placement bets as well.
