New week, new series on the betting slate! I’ll have game write-ups on Marlins vs. Astros, Cubs vs. Reds, Red Sox vs. Royals, and Yankees vs. Rangers later. Having said that, based on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets for tonight’s slate, separate from my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Christian Yelich 3+ HRR (hits + runs + RBI) (+150)
Christian Yelich is in a prime spot to stuff the stat sheet against Atlanta. The Brewers’ leadoff man has been tearing it up, with seven hits in his last three games and a team-high 21 home runs on the season. Facing right-hander Erick Fedde, Yelich’s outlook only brightens. Fedde has been a punching bag for left-handed hitters this year, surrendering a hefty .379 wOBA and 6.32 FIP to lefties, along with 11 of his 15 homers allowed. Yelich, a former MVP, is precisely the type of patient, lethal lefty to capitalize. He’s slashing over .300 in August and thriving against sinkers—Fedde’s primary offering—posting a .447 wOBA and .244 ISO against that pitch over the past two seasons. In short, Fedde’s sinker isn’t sinking Yelich; it’s a launchpad.
Milwaukee’s catalyst should consistently be on base and in the mix for runs and RBIs tonight. Yelich’s elite 15% walk rate and .400+ OBP mean he’s frequently setting the table or clearing it. Once aboard, he’s an aggressive baserunner who can score from first on an extra-base hit. And given Fedde’s ERA north of 5.00 and habit of allowing traffic (three-plus earned in six straight starts), opportunities for Yelich to cross the plate or drive someone in will be plentiful. The Braves’ bullpen behind Fedde has been middle-of-the-pack, offering little relief.
This 3+ Hits/Runs/RBIs line at +150 is a juicy value because Yelich can hit it in various ways—a multi-hit game, a homer plus a run, or even a single with a couple of runs scored. With his advanced metrics all trending up and a favorable matchup across the board, expect Yelich to fill up the box score in Atlanta. He’s locked in at the plate, and this matchup screams production. Bank on Yelich to deliver across the board tonight.
Casey Mize 5+ total strikeouts (-120) vs. Twins
After a trio of abbreviated outings, Casey Mize is due for a rebound and the matchup with Minnesota’s whiff-happy lineup sets the stage. The Tigers’ right-hander still sports a 9-4 record and 3.43 ERA, showing his All-Star caliber form this season even with some recent hiccups. While Mize averages only about 4.7 strikeouts per start (84 Ks in 18 games), the Twins present the perfect opportunity to pad that total. Minnesota ranks near the top of MLB in strikeout rate, loaded with free-swingers who expand the zone. Their projected lineup has multiple hitters striking out over 25% of the time – a recipe for Mize to rack up at least five punchouts.
Mize’s arsenal should play well against these Twins. He pounds the zone with a mid-90s fastball and uses his slider and splitter as finishers once ahead in the count. Minnesota has particularly struggled with sliders. In a recent series, Detroit rookie Reese Olson carved them up with that pitch, posting a staggering 73% whiff rate against Twins hitters. Mize can replicate that blueprint, baiting Minnesota’s power bats into chasing off-speed junk out of the zone. His 20.8% strikeout rate could see a boost tonight given the opponent’s tendencies.
Another factor favoring Mize is the environment. Comerica Park’s spacious dimensions allow him to pitch aggressively without fear of the long ball, leading to more confident two-strike approaches. If he can work into the fifth or sixth inning (something he’s motivated to do after not seeing the fifth in three straight starts), five Ks is well within reach. At even-money odds, this prop is a steal against such a strikeout-prone opponent. Expect Mize to put the Twins’ lineup on its heels and sail past this 4.5 K total.
Kyle Stowers to hit a home run (+330) vs. Astros
For a high-upside value play, look no further than Kyle Stowers going deep tonight. The Marlins’ 27-year-old slugger is enjoying a breakout power campaign with 25 home runs, and this matchup is ripe for another. Stowers has left the yard in two of his last three games, including a long ball as part of a 2-for-4 day on Sunday. He’s punishing right-handed pitching to the tune of 24 homers off righties, and Houston is sending a very hittable right-hander, Jason Alexander, to the mound. Alexander carries an ERA north of 7.00 and has coughed up five homers in just eight appearances. Simply put, Stowers gets a cake matchup against an arm that struggles to keep the ball in the park.
The advanced metrics back up Stowers’ slugging surge. He boasts a 91.4 mph average exit velocity and a whopping 52.7% hard-hit rate, ranking among MLB’s elite in making loud contact. His 19.5% barrel rate—sixth-best in the majors—underlines just how frequently he’s bludgeoning pitches with ideal power. When Stowers connects, it’s not cheap. It’s no wonder his wOBA sits around .400, an elite mark. Against a soft-tossing righty like Alexander, one mistake in Stowers’ wheelhouse could easily end up 400+ feet away in the seats.
loanDepot Park might not have the reputation of Coors Field, but don’t be deceived. In recent seasons it’s played surprisingly homer-friendly, especially in Miami’s summer conditions. Stowers himself has 12 bombs at home this year. With his confidence at the plate sky-high and a struggling pitcher on the hill, the stars align for a potential round-tripper. At +340 odds, the value is tremendous for a hitter of Stowers’ caliber in this matchup. Don’t be shocked when he trots around the bases tonight.
