The 2024 New England Patriots finished the season with 529 pass attempts, the ninth-fewest in the NFL. The eight teams with fewer pass attempts were the Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles. Seven of those teams were good football teams, often playing with a lead. Seven of those teams have dual-threat quarterbacks.
Only the Colts and Patriots had a sub .500 record with young, inexperienced quarterbacks. Indianapolis finished 8-9, while New England went 4-13 for the second straight season.
As a result, Robert Kraft cleaned house, replacing head coach Jerod Mayo, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington with Mike Vrabel, Josh McDaniels and Terrell Williams.
Patriots target share overview
Mike Vrabel was the head coach in Tennessee for six seasons. He’s a defensive-minded coach that was able to employ a ground-and-pound offense due to Derrick Henry. Near the end, though, with Henry in Baltimore and the Titans with quarterback issues, the offenses were consistently ranked towards the bottom of the league.
The defenses remained solid, finishing 14th and 16th in points the final two seasons Vrabel was in Tennessee.
Defensive coordinator Terrell Williams was the defensive line coach with the Raiders, Titans and Lions. This will be the first time Williams will be calling defensive plays, and Vrabel mentioned that he will not be a part of that process.
Last season, the Patriots defense ranked 22nd in both points and yards. The unit had 12 takeaways on the season, tied for the second-least. The 28 sacks were the fewest in the NFL.
In the offseason, New England addressed the defense with the acquisitions of DT Milton Williams, CB Carlton Davis, LB Robert Spillane and DE/LB Harold Landry.
The defense should be much improved, which could keep the pass rate down.
The offensive line, on the other hand, maybe not so much. PFF has the unit as the 29th-best entering the season. Moves were made in free agency, but the players acquired weren’t good to begin with. New England did spend a first-round pick on tackle Will Campbell, but he is but one link in the chain.
Now, Josh McDaniels may have been a terrible head coach, but he’s proven to be an excellent offensive mind. His ability to scheme and coach could help out the porous offensive line to a degree, but don’t expect a miracle. He does get a shiny toy at quarterback to work with, though.
Drake Maye was selected with the third overall pick in the 2024 draft. He started 12 games last season and completed 66.6% of his passes for 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also rushed 54 times for 421 yards, two touchdowns and 22 first downs. The stage definitely wasn’t too big for him and there is much optimism heading into 2025, especially with a proven offensive mind in McDaniels.
That said, there is uncertainty in how Maye and McDaniels gel, but I lean towards Maye making a nice developmental jump in Year 2.
And that should be fostered with the additions of Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams to the wide receiver group.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in New England this season.
Wide receivers
No player on the Patriots received at least 100 targets last season. DeMario Douglas led the wide receivers with 88 targets and a 17.6% target share. Douglas has been a favorite of Maye in training camp and could get closer to 20%.
Kayshon Boutte was second with 68 targets and a 15% target share.
Stefon Diggs only played eight games last season with Houston and finished with 64 targets and a 23.9% target share. He did have surgery for a torn ACL in October of 2024, but he’s been fully cleared for practices. At 32 years old and recovering from an ACL injury, expectations should be tempered, but if he is close to 100%, Diggs should garner the highest target share on the team. Per Next Gen Stats, Diggs had at least 3.0 yards of separation at the time of the pass for the last four seasons, with 3.3 yards in 2024. Only 19 players had a higher number last season.
Mack Hollins garnered 50 targets and a 10.1% target share in 17 games with the Buffalo Bills last season. The Bills offense was spread out, so it’s not entirely indicative of what he can do. Back in 2022 with the Las Vegas Raiders, Hollins caught 57-of-94 targets for 690 yards and four touchdowns, good for a 16.2% target share. Hollins is 6’4″, 221 pounds and runs a 4.53 40-yard dash. He had 3.0 yards of separation at time of pass last season, but he’s more of a jump ball receiver, which should complement Diggs well.
Tight ends
Both Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper remain atop the depth chart. Henry led the Patriots with 98 targets last season and a 20.8% target share. Hooper finished with 59 targets and an 11.8% target share.
McDaniels has often utilized two-tight end sets, so both Henry and Hooper will be involved in the passing game. I don’t think Henry receives a 20% target share, though. Maybe that ticks down to the 15% range with Diggs being the beneficiary.
Running backs
Rhamondre Stevenson had 41 targets and a 9.3% target share in 15 games last season. Antonio Gibson was second with 29 targets and a 5.8% target share.
New England utilized the 38th overall pick in the draft to select TreVeyon Henderson. He is 5’10”, 202 pounds and runs a 4.43 40-yard dash. At Ohio State, he garnered a 7.5% target share. He will likely be heavily involved in the passing attack this season.
