After a brief pause for the All-Star break, the WNBA is back in full swing. There are three games taking place across Friday’s slate. The Liberty vs. Mercury matchup headlines the action. These teams sit in second and third place in the WNBA, respectively.
The Liberty are still the WNBA title favorites with their odds of repeating at +135 DraftKings Sportsbook. The Minnesota Lynx are the second-favorites at +200 odds, while the Mercury are +650.
Looking at tonight’s matchup, the Liberty enter as six-point favorites and -270 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury hold +220 odds of winning on the moneyline with the game total set at 170.5.
Mercury at Liberty preview
The Phoenix Mercury enter with a 15-8 record on the season, which puts them in third place in the WNBA. However, they rank sixth in the league in points per game, offensive rating, opponents’ points allowed and defensive rating. Phoenix plays at the third-fastest pace in the league and attacks from the perimeter often. It ranks second in the league in three-point attempts per game and fourth in efficiency, connecting at a 34.6% rate. While they have can struggle on the boards at times, the Mercury lead the WNBA in opponents’ turnovers per game.
Satou Sabally headlines the scoring with 18.8 points along with her 7.3 rebounds per contest. Alyssa Thomas can fill any role on a night-by-night basis, averaging 14.8 points, 9.5 assists and 7.5 rebounds per game. Kahleah Copper made her return from knee surgery and is averaging 15.7 points and 3.1 rebounds while shooting a team-best 44.1% (minimum three 3PA) on threes across her seven games played. After starting the season with the Indiana Fever, six-time All-Star DeWanna Bonner returned to Phoenix and is averaging 14.5 points and 5.0 rebounds in her four games with the team. Sami Whitcomb is also averaging in double-figures, scoring 10.8 points per game and connecting on 37% of her threes.
The Liberty hold a record of 16-6 on the season, which slots them at second place in the WNBA. They lead the league in scoring and pace, but rank fifth in opponents’ points per game. Their 87.4 points per contest are comfortably above the Minnesota Lynx in second place, who average 84.9 points per game. New York ranks fourth in the league in three-point attempts and leads the WNBA with a 36% three-point percentage as a team. They also generate the most steals and are fourth in opponents’ turnovers forced.
Two-time MVP Breanna Stewart headlines the production, averaging 19.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. Sabrina Ionescu is a great complement in the backcourt, adding 18.4 points, 5.7 assists and 4.4 rebounds despite shooting a career-worst 31.7% from beyond the three-point arc. Jonquel Jones made her return from injury in the previous game and is adding 12.7 points and 9.5 rebounds across 10 games this year. Natasha Cloud has also proven integral to the team. The three-time All-Defensive team member sets the tone on this side of the floor and is averaging 9.9 points, 5.9 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.
These two teams have faced off twice already this season. The Mercury came out with an 89-81 victory in the first matchup and beat the Liberty 106-91 in the previous game. Both these matchups took place in June.
Mercury at Liberty prediction, pick
Buckle up for plenty of points as each of these teams plays up tempo and likes to launch the three-ball. This game features the fastest and third-fastest team in terms of pace and the first and sixth best scoring teams. The 170.5 total is high, but they put up 197 points in their most recent meeting and finished at 170 in the first game despite neither team shooting above 43% from the floor or 31% from three. The Liberty are also entering this game off back-to-back 98-point performances.
In addition, this is a great spot for the Liberty to get back in the win column against this Mercury team. Expect the pair of losses to still be in New York’s mind. The Mercury are coming off back-to-back losses while the Liberty are riding a four-game winning streak. In addition, the Liberty are 11-2 when playing at home this season compared to just 5-4 on the road.
It may seem ridiculous, but it feels like the Liberty have yet to play their best basketball and may just now be finding their form. Expect New York to make a statement tonight with a high-level offensive attack that Phoenix cannot match.
Best Bet: Over 170.5 (-110) & Liberty -6 (-112)
While I am backing the Liberty in this matchup, I project Stewart to grab under 6.5 rebounds tonight. You can read my write-up below and check out my other top WNBA prop bests for tonight’s slate on DK Network here:
Breanna Stewart is averaging a career-low 6.7 rebounds per game this season. One reason for this is that Jonquel Jones is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game. Jones suffered an ankle injury, which has limited her to just 10 games this season. Stewart is averaging just 4.8 rebounds per game when playing alongside Jones and 8.3 without her.
The two-time MVP pulled in just three rebounds against the Mercury in the matchup that Jones did play in, even with Jones leaving early due to injury. Stewart also grabbed just five rebounds in 31 minutes during the other matchup with the Mercury, in which Jones did not play.
Phoenix is not a great rebounding team overall. It ranks seventh in the league in rebounds, 10th in opponents’ rebounds allowed, and eighth in rebounding percentage. Expectations should still be a bit tempered for Jones in her second game back. She logged 22:32 of game action in her return and finished with 18 points and nine rebounds. Jones has pulled in at least seven boards in every game she has not left due to injury. Expect her level of opportunity to expand with a game under her belt and a more competitive matchup tonight.
Stewart is still performing as one of the better players in the WNBA, but the impact has not come in the rebounding department as was once the case. Expect Jones to continue doing the dirty work for the Liberty and for Stewart to make her presence felt in other areas. She has been held to under 6.5 rebounds in 10 of the 22 games overall, including both previous matchups with the Mercury. Count on this trend to continue and for Stewart to be held to six or fewer rebounds tonight with Jones back in action.
