The 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the season with 571 pass attempts, the 10th-most in the league, yet Tampa Bay was 21st in pass rate at 55.36% and third in time of possession at 31:41 minutes per game. Some of that had to do with milking the clock when leading, while the other aspect is that the offense was so efficient that drives were sustained, resulting in more plays.
Tampa Bay finished sixth in total plays with 1,094 while leading the league in third-down conversion rate at 50.9%. Tampa Bay was also third in total first downs with 224.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the O/U for Tampa Bay at 9.5 wins. They are favorites to win the NFC South at -110, seventh to win the NFC at +1300 and 11th to win the Super Bowl at +2800, so the offense should continue being one of the better units in the league. That said, there is some uncertainty as offensive coordinator Liam Coen became the head man in Jacksonville, replaced by Josh Grizzard.
Buccaneers target share overview
Grizzard began his coaching career at Yale as a student assistant. He then spent four years at Duke as a graduate assistant before making the leap to the NFL, where he spent seven seasons with the Miami Dolphins in a variety of capacities – wide receiver coach and quality control. Last season, he was on the Buccaneers staff as the pass game coordinator, so he had a hand in the immense success of last year’s offense, but this will be his first time calling plays.
The offensive line is rated sixth by PFF entering the season. The unit is one of the best pass-blocking units in the NFL, but left tackle Tristan Wirfs did have knee surgery and could miss some time to start the season.
Wide receiver Chris Godwin is on the PUP list, recovering from a dislocated left ankle suffered during Week 7 of last season. Tampa Bay did select wide receiver Emeka Egbuka in the first round of the draft.
As for the defense, the unit was mediocre primarily due to a rash of injuries. Health should improve the unit. In addition, Tampa Bay has the 10th-easiest schedule according to Sharp Football Analysis.
Those factors could decrease the number of pass attempts. That said, Tampa Bay was 21st in pass rate last season and still was prolific.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Tampa Bay this season.
Wide receivers
Mike Evans was the alpha with 110 targets and a 24.1% target share in 14 games. Evans has had a target share of at least 20% seven times, with two over 30%, but those happened early in his career.
Chris Godwin was second with 62 targets but only played seven games. The target share was 26.6%.
Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard had 58 and 51 targets, respectively. McMillan’s target share was 13.4% while Shepard’s was 10.6%. McMillan could see a similar target share if Godwin misses time, but will likely see a decrease when Godwin is healthy. Shepard will likely be closer to 5% when everyone is healthy.
Emeka Egbuka was selected with the 19th overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. He’s 6′ 1″, 205 pounds and known as an excellent route runner and catcher of the football. Egbuka will likely operate mostly within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, so the target share could be robust, especially if Godwin misses time. He will likely be in the teens when both Evans and Godwin are on the field.
Tight ends
Cade Otton dominated the tight end targets with 87 and a 19% target share. Otton saw a huge spike last season due to the Godwin injury. He will likely be closer to 10% this season with a healthy Godwin and Egbuka roaming the middle of defenses.
Running backs
Rachaad White had 57 targets and a 10.8% target share last season. Bucky Irving finished with 52 targets and a 9.2% target share.
Even though Irving has elevated to the top of the depth chart, White will still be a factor in the passing game because, well, he’s very good in that area.
