The 2024 Atlanta Falcons finished the season with 559 pass attempts, the 14th-most in the league. Kirk Cousins started 14 games, throwing 16 interceptions with only 18 touchdowns. He also fumbled 13 times! Cousins was eventually replaced by Michael Penix Jr., the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Penix showed flashes but predictably struggled, completing 58.1% of his passes while throwing three touchdowns with three interceptions in three starts. That experience along with an entire offseason should provide optimism for 2025.
The wildcard for the 2025 Falcons passing offense could be the defense.
Falcons target share overview
The Falcons defense allowed the 10th-most points per game with 24.5. The 31 sacks were the second-fewest and the 34 passing touchdowns were the second-most.
Despite that, Atlanta passed at the seventh-lowest rate.
That’s probably due to a confluence of factors: a hobbled veteran quarterback, a rookie quarterback and injuries to the offensive line.
When healthy, the Falcons offensive line is well-respected. PFF has the unit ranked eighth heading into 2025 while Footballguys has the unit top-5. There were issues in pass protection, though, as the unit seems stronger in run blocking.
Zac Robinson remains the offensive coordinator, and he will likely continue to employ a balanced attack.
Defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake has been replaced by Jeff Ulbrich. Atlanta also invested heavily in the defensive line to get more pressure on the quarterback, selecting Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. in the first round of the draft while signing Leonard Floyd in free agency.
If the defense can get more stops or limit the number of points allowed, that could allow an even more balanced approach on offense for Robinson. In that scenario, the pass attempts would come down.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Atlanta this season.
Wide receivers
Drake London and Darnell Mooney were the only players to receive over 100 targets. London finished with 157 while Mooney had 107. London garnered a 29.1% target share while Mooney was at 21.3%. Mooney had a higher aDOT by 1.6 yards but London received 19 more red zone targets.
Ray-Ray McCloud III ended with 87 targets and a 16.1% target share. His aDOT was only 6.8 yards, 4.0 yards lower than London’s.
Mooney recently suffered a shoulder injury during practice. He may be out for a few weeks. On the same day, Atlanta signed DJ Chark to a one-year deal. It could be something, it could be nothing. Chark is a get-cardio, take-the-top-off-the-defense player, so he wouldn’t command a high target share regardless.
Tight ends
Kyle Pitts finished with 74 targets and a 13.7% target share. The once-deemed generational tight end prospect had a 20.3% target share in his rookie season, finishing with 110 targets, 68 receptions, 1,026 yards but only one touchdown. The following season in 2022, the target share spiked to 27.3%, but Pitts ended up playing only 10 games. Since then, he’s been mired in the 13% target share range.
He’s still only 24 years old so I wouldn’t dismiss the notion of an increase in target share and productive season, but it’s difficult to see where the targets would come from.
Running backs
Bijan Robinson garnered 72 targets last season with a 13.4% target share. Only Alvin Kamara, De’Von Achane and Breece Hall received more targets from the running back position last season. Bijan is one of the best dual-threat backs in the league and will continue being a focal point of the offense.
Tyler Allgeier finished with 13 targets and a 2.4% target share. He is no threat to siphon targets from a healthy Robinson.
