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DraftKings King of the Diamond: MLB Home Run Picks for July 11th

DraftKings King of the Diamond: MLB Home Run Picks for July 11th

Updated:

By: Steve Buchanan

DraftKings ‘King of the Diamond’ promotion returns for today, July 11th! All game starting after 7 p.m. ET are eligible for this promotion.

You may be asking, what is the “King of the Diamond”? For an in-depth breakdown of this promotion, you can read our How to Play King of the Diamond article on DraftKings Network. Below is a quick summary:’

  • Opt into the promotion on DraftKings Sportsbook
  • Choose between 2-5 players to place in any type of parlay (Same Game Parlay, SGPx) with a “To Hit a Home Run” bet. (Examples: Aaron Judge 1+ Home Run, Shohei Ohtani 2+ home runs, etc.)
  • King of the Diamond is awarded to all MLB players who hit 1 or more home runs as part of the highest-scoring MLB team (from eligible games) of the day.

Follow me on Twitter (X) for daily MLB info and picks @SBuchanan24


DraftKings King of the Diamond Strategy

Essentially, two conditions must be met to be eligible to win part of the King of the Diamond jackpot: one or more players must hit a home run and play for the team with the highest score that night. One way to determine which players to pick is to identify the teams with the highest projected totals for that night. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, these are currently the highest projected team totals as of 8:00 a.m. Friday morning.

Highest MLB team totals for Friday, July 11th

  • Toronto Blue Jays 5.5 runs at Athletics (over -125 under under -105)
  • Cincinnati Reds 5.5 runs vs. Colorado Rockies (over -105 under -125)
  • New York Yankees 5.5 runs vs. Chicago Cubs (over +114 under -145)
  • New York Mets 4.5 runs at Kansas City Royals (over -140 under +110)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks 4.5 runs at Los Angeles Angels (over -130 under +100)

MLB Starting Pitchers: Most home runs allowed

Of today’s starting pitchers, here is a list of those who have allowed the most home runs this season. In parentheses, the breakdown shows home runs allowed to right-handed and left-handed batters.

  • Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 16 home runs allowed; 1.4 HR/9 (9 vs. RHB, 7 vs. LHB)
  • Grant Holmes (ATL) at St. Louis Cardinals: 15 home runs allowed; 1.3 HR/9 (8 vs. RHB, 7 vs. LHB)
  • Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs. Chicago Cubs: 15 home runs allowed; 1.2 HR/9 (11 vs. RHB, 4 vs. LHB)
  • Dustin May (LAD) at San Francisco Giants: 13 home runs allowed; 1.3 HR/9 (4 vs. RHB, 9 vs. LHB)

MLB Weather Notes:

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (Game 2): Potential for in-game delay.
New York Mets at Kansas City Royals: Potential late start, PPD possible
Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics: Winds blowing out, humid
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals: Winds blowing toward left



DraftKings King of the Diamond Home Run Picks for Friday, July 11

Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +245 vs. San Diego Padres

I don’t believe the Phillies are going to be a team that jumps out tonight. They’re up against the Padres and rookie starter Ryan Bergert, who’s making his sixth start and 10th overall appearance. On the surface, Bergert has been impressive, posting a 2.67 ERA and allowing just 0.67 home runs per nine innings. However, signs of regression are there—his 4.16 expected ERA (xERA) and a 48% fly ball rate suggest some trouble could be looming.

The Phillies could be the team to expose that. They’ve been excellent against the four-seam fastball, which Bergert throws 49% of the time. Tonight’s projected Phillies lineup owns a combined .375 wOBA and .178 ISO against that pitch. Kyle Schwarber, in particular, has shown elite power versus four-seamers this season, with a .254 ISO.

Tyler Soderstrom to hit a home run +330 vs. Toronto Blue Jays

After belting nine home runs through March and April, Soderstrom seemingly lost his power stroke. He hit just four combined in May and June, appearing to derail what had been shaping up to be a monster 2025 season. However, he looks to be rediscovering his power in July, already tallying five extra-base hits through seven games—two of which have left the yard.

Tonight, he’ll face Max Scherzer, who has allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings over his first four starts. Home runs have been an issue for Scherzer in recent years, with a career-high 1.6 HR/9 in 2023. He hasn’t resembled his dominant self of the past, and with ideal hitting conditions in Sacramento tonight, the ball could be flying.

Corey Seager to hit a home run +390 vs. Houston Astros

The Rangers’ offense is on a tear, averaging a staggering seven runs per game through nine contests in July. Their 63 runs scored is the second-highest total in the league over that span, despite hitting just 12 home runs—tied for 12th in the league this month. That home run total could see a boost tonight against Lance McCullers in Houston.

McCullers has struggled mightily at home. In 19 innings pitched, he’s allowed 24 runs on 24 hits—seven of which have left the yard. The home run issues have been especially pronounced lately, with five allowed over his last three starts.

Corey Seager has been red hot, batting close to .400 this month with three home runs in nine games. Given how well the Rangers are swinging the bats as a team, they have a strong chance to be the highest-scoring offense of the night.

Mickey Moniak to hit a home run +425 vs. Cincinnati Reds

Let’s be honest—the chances of the Rockies winning King of the Diamond on Friday night are slim. This offense is averaging just over three runs per game so far in July. That said, the matchup against Chase Burns in hitter-friendly Cincinnati is at least intriguing.

Burns’ 8.10 ERA is certainly inflated, but even his 5.93 xERA suggests he’s been far from sharp. He’s allowed plenty of traffic on the basepaths, giving up 13 hits and issuing six walks over just 10 innings pitched.

Mickey Moniak has been the Rockies’ best bat of late, with two home runs in seven July games. It’s a long shot, but one thing is almost certain: few people will be including Rockies players in their KOTD entries—making them an interesting contrarian play.

Follow me on Twitter (X) for daily MLB info and picks @SBuchanan24


Good luck with your King of the Diamond picks for tonight! Whenever this promotion is happening, I’ll be doing these strategy articles exclusively on DraftKings Network.

For a more in-depth breakdown of how the King of the Diamond promo works, check out our How to Play King of the Diamond article on DraftKings Network.


Steve has been with DraftKings for over 10 years, covering baseball and football from a sports betting and fantasy perspective. He’s written hundreds of articles that have helped readers research and make informative bets or fantasy lineups. During this time, Steve has also been featured on a number of national broadcasts, including MLB Network, ESPN, and NFL Network.
Disclaimer

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.