This is the finale of a three-game series in Minnesota between the Twins and visiting Chicago Cubs.
Colin Rea is scheduled to pitch for Chicago while Chris Paddack should get the nod for Minnesota.
Cubs at Twins prediction, preview
Colin Rea has never had a K/9 over 8. Through 85 innings this season, the 6.35 mark is a career-low, despite averaging a career-high 94 mph on the fastball. The swinging strike rate is only 8% while the chase rate is 25.6%. The 4.13 ERA is not supported by the 4.81 FIP. The main culprit is the 15 home runs allowed.
Rea has had difficulties against left-handed batters, as they are slashing .320/.368/.550 and have hit 10 of the 15 home runs allowed. The ERA at home and on the road are identical at 4.13, but 11 of the 15 home runs have been served up at home.
Rea has allowed more than three earned runs five times, three of those with at least six earned runs. In the last three starts, Rea has allowed one, two and seven earned runs. That seven-earned run game had four home runs allowed to the Seattle Mariners at home. This will be his first time facing the Twins this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Twins have struck out at the 19th-highest rate while having the 11th-best ISO. The wOBA is 19th-best in MLB.
Chris Paddack has been meh all around. He’s been just good enough to not be terrible, but been just bad enough to not be good. We’re practicing mental gymnastics today! The strikeout rate is a career-low 17%, yet the plate discipline numbers are actually decent with a 9.1% swinging strike rate and 32.2% chase rate. Paddack has allowed 24 walks and 13 home runs in 95 innings. The 4.28 FIP is slightly lower than the 4.64 ERA.
Paddack has had more difficulty striking out lefties and they have hit eight of the 13 home runs allowed. 10 of the 13 home runs have been served up on the road.
Paddack has allowed more than three earned runs five times. In the opener, he got tagged for nine earned runs in 3.1 innings by the White Sox in Chicago. Five starts ago, the Houston Astros lit him up for eight earned runs in four innings in Houston. Since then, he’s allowed four, four, three and two earned runs. Paddack has gone more than six innings three times: seven innings without an earned run, 7.1 innings with six strikeouts and an earned run, and eight innings with 10 strike outs and one earned run allowed. When Paddack is good, he’s very good. When he’s bad, he’s very bad. This will be his first time facing the Cubs this season.
The Cubs have struck out at the 25th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being third in ISO. The wOBA is fourth-best.
As for bullpens, Chicago has the 12th-lowest FIP while Minnesota has the second-lowest.
Cubs at Twins, Best Bet
I’m not a fan of either pitcher, and both have shown the capacity to get lit up on any given day. That said, Rea has had home run problems at home while Paddack has had issues on the road. Well, Rea is on the road while Paddack is at home.
