We’re all-systems-go for this lovely Wednesday slate of baseball here at DraftKings Network, and I already have previews/predictions up for the Red Sox vs. Rockies and Twins vs. Cubs games. Having said that, based on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets today surrounding my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Seattle Mariners (+130) at New York Yankees
I’m hammering the Mariners to flip this script tonight. Seattle ranks top‑six in MLB with an elite .728 OPS (112 OPS+), peppering 637 runs over 86 games—an offensive juggernaut that refuses neutral venues. Logan Evans spits out quality starts at a 2.96 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, boasting a 3.8 K/BB ratio that limits free passes. Meanwhile, Yanks starter Seattle’s speed game adds context: 79 steals, a top‑five mark in MLB, putting constant pressure on opposing batteries. Their .345 team OBP over the last 15 games signals a lineup barreling into form.
The Mariners also rank third in hard-hit rate (44.7%) and fourth in barrel rate (9.8%) across the last month, with Julio Rodríguez and Josh Rojas both holding wRC+ marks above 130 in that span. Their offense is multidimensional—aggressive baserunning, elite swing decisions, and the kind of contact quality that travels. The Yankees’ bullpen has been beatable in the last two weeks, posting a 4.44 ERA with a .269 opponents’ average—far from shutdown. The market prices Seattle at +123 (~44% implied), but Seattle’s underlying talent and matchup context push their real win probability closer to 53–55%. Fade the public chalk, grab the line value, and let Seattle’s balanced offense and durable arm chew through Yankee Stadium.
Chicago Cubs (-110) at Minnesota Twins
Locking in Chicago on the moneyline is textbook value. Their offense sits at a scorching .773 OPS (121 OPS+), slashing 1,318 total bases and generating power from every tier of the lineup. Cade Horton has been solid with a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, but his 26.1% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate underscore sharp command and whiff potential. His 3.85 xFIP suggests he’s actually underperforming slightly—there’s room for correction. Meanwhile, David Festa brings a 5.48 ERA and brutal 1.36 WHIP to the hill, with a 1.63 HR/9 mark and a 10.8% barrel rate against. Minnesota’s offense flattens out: a .702 OPS, .310 OBP, and a sub-.300 BABIP in July. In their last seven games, the Twins rank 24th in wRC+ (82) and 27th in ISO (.112), failing to generate consistent extra-base damage.
Chicago’s right-handed bats—Busch, Suzuki, and Crow-Armstrong—have driven a 132 wRC+ versus righties in the past two weeks. The Cubs also boast a top-five walk rate and are fourth in line drive percentage since July 1. Minnesota’s bullpen? A 5.10 ERA at home, with a .265 BAA and 13 blown saves in 30 chances. Chicago has covered the moneyline in five of the last six head-to-head matchups. At -110, you’re getting a better starter, superior offense, and more reliable relief. This is a clean strike.
Philadelphia Phillies (-140) at San Francisco Giants
Philly’s total offense beats San Francisco across the board: 399 runs scored, .733 OPS (101 OPS+) versus SF’s 359 runs and .682 OPS. The Phillies rank sixth in MLB in ISO (.177) and seventh in team wRC+ over the last 30 days, fueled by a rejuvenated Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm, who’ve combined for a 145 wRC+ in that stretch. Meanwhile, the Giants’ lineup has cratered—26th in wRC+ in July (76) and slugging just .352 as a team. This matchup shifts to another level with Justin Verlander and Jesús Luzardo toeing the slab. Verlander has pitched to a 3.68 ERA across 94 innings, but his 4.42 xERA and .329 xwOBA allowed tell a different story. His strikeout rate sits below 21%, and his swinging-strike rate is down to 9.8%—he’s pitching more to contact and getting hit harder than his name implies.
Luzardo, on the other hand, is quietly surging: 3.21 ERA, 2.98 FIP, and an elite 30.2% strikeout rate in 87.2 innings. His WHIP is 1.07, and opponents are hitting just .216 off him this season. Philly’s lefty has allowed one or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts, and his 15.4% swinging-strike rate ranks third among all qualified NL starters. Oracle Park (.95 PF) doesn’t neuter Philly’s 42 road homers—top-10 in MLB—and their lineup has pummeled right-handed pitching with a .335 wOBA since June 1. Their bullpen has been nails too, posting a 2.90 ERA and 29.3% K-rate over the last 30 days. San Francisco’s pen holds a 4.61 ERA at home and ranks 21st in strand rate. The -140 line proportionately Philly’s explosive offense, red-hot starter, and shutdown pen.
