The knockout stages of the expanded FIFA Club World Cup are finally underway, with nine UEFA teams, four Brazilian teams, two from CONCACAF, and one from Asia still standing. We’re guaranteed to get at least one non-European club in the quarterfinals, as Brazilian sides Palmeiras and Botafogo will play each other after Palmeiras topped Group A and Botafogo finished as the runner-up to PSG in Group B.
It’s the only Round of 16 matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook where both teams have plus odds of winning in regular time. Palmeiras is a +130 favorite, with Botafogo at +235 and a draw at +200.
The DraftKings Network will be closely covering the tournament, so stay tuned for more coverage.
Palmeiras vs. Botafogo prediction, pick
The story of the tournament so far has been how underrated the Brazilian sides weret, as all four Série A teams advanced. That’s despite Opta ranking the Brazilian league as just the ninth-strongest league in the world, behind the traditional top five, the Belgian and Portuguese top flights, and even the English second tier. After seeing Flamengo dismantle Chelsea, Botafogo beat Paris Saint-Germain, and Fluminense hold Dortmund to a draw, I’m not buying it. During the group stage, Brazilian clubs were 6-5-1, with Botafogo’s 1-0 loss to Atlético Madrid on the final match day the only defeat.
To be fair, it was a loss that the Rio de Janeiro-based side probably deserved; Los Colchoneros fired off 23 shots to their seven and managed 61% possession. However, Botafogo didn’t need that win as badly as Atlético did, thanks to its superior goal differential, so it’s hard to read too much into a match in which it was the less desperate side. Throughout the tournament, the club’s stifling defense forced opponents into low-quality looks, and they allowed just 19.4% of total shot attempts to find the target. They also recorded the seventh-most tackles and an above-average number of interceptions and allowed just two goals, tied for the fourth-fewest in the competition. Igor Jesus, a 24-year-old striker, found the back of the net twice.
All three other Brazilian clubs also allowed just two goals, and Palmeiras was even more stifling on defense, allowing just eight shots on target in the first three matches. The São Paulo club wasn’t as dominant against dribblers as Botafogo was, recording the fourth-fewest tackles, but it was a menace in passing lanes, notching the second-most interceptions. That allowed Palmeiras to drive it forward through Estêvão Willian, a monumentally talented 18-year-old winger who will join Chelsea at the conclusion of the tournament. At 60 million Euros, Estêvão is the most valuable player on either club, and — for now — he forms a young, dangerous attacking partnership with Vitor Roque, a former Barcelona wunderkind who wasn’t quite ready for La Liga but has shown flashes in this tournament and is still just 20 years old.
Though Palmeiras played in a much easier group, the fact that they were able to top it was promising. They managed 46% possession and 22 shots in their furious comeback against Inter Miami on the final match day, so they probably should have won the game had Óscar Ustari not managed to make five saves. They also dominated Porto in the opening match and arguably were unlucky to escape with a draw. Even though Botafogo beat PSG, they did so while controlling just 25% of the possession and allowing 16 shots. It’s a rarity that Khvicha Kvaratskhelia puts just one of his five shots on target.
