14 teams have already punched their ticket to the knockout stages with one group-stage match day left to play in the first-ever 32-team FIFA Club World Cup. Tonight, Real Madrid and RB Salzburg will have the opportunity to do the same. The winner will advance to face the runner-up in Group G — either Manchester City or Juventus — while the loser will go home if Al-Hilal beats Pachuca. A draw guarantees Madrid to go through, but it could come down to goal difference, goals scored, disciplinary fair play points, and random lots between Salzburg and Al-Hilal.
Unless both sides go through, the loser will be the third European side to suffer an early exit, while Al-Hilal would be the only Asian side to advance to the elimination matches. The stakes will be high for both sides, so the play should be high-quality, especially with Kylian Mbappé set to return for Los Blancos.
DraftKings Sportsbook is offering single-use Profit Boost Tokens throughout the tournament, eligible to use on 4+ leg SGP(x)s that are +300 or longer. Here’s my favorite in tonight’s all-important clash.
Real Madrid vs. RB Salzburg Same Game Parlay
- Real Madrid Moneyline
- Arda Güler 3+ Shots
- Oscar Gloukh Anytime Goalscorer
- Over 10.5 Corners
This parlay is an extreme long-shot, predominantly because it includes Gloukh (+400) as a goal scorer. Each of the nine players with the shortest goal scoring odds play for the Galacticos, including Gonzalo García and Víctor Muñoz, who have played a combined 92 minutes in the competition so far. By comparison, all of the Salzburg players as values, and Gloukh has scored one of the team’s two goals this competition, a tremendous curling effort into the right side of the net after a cutback just outside the box. The 21-year-old Israeli is the team’s highest-valued player, with a 20 million Euro market value on Transfermarkt. Madrid is defensively vulnerable; it allowed 25 shots, including 11 on target, to Pachuca and only escaped with the win because of Thibaut Courtois’ masterpiece. Raúl Asencio picked up a red card against the Liga MX side and will miss tonight’s game, harming Los Blancos’ defensive depth.
I think the Spanish giants will still win, depending on how much Mbappé plays. The brilliant Frenchman has been hospitalized with gastroenteritis and might not be fully fit, so I’d be surprised if he plays all 90 minutes. However, he’s more than capable of making a huge impact in limited time, and I’d have taken his goal scoring prop were it not -205.
Güler could start up front alongside Mbappé or play critical minutes off the bench — he’s played 104 minutes so far this tournament — and he should get plenty of shots off. The Turkish star leads all Madrid players with 4.33 total shots per 90 minutes, and Salzburg has allowed the seventh-most shots per 90 minutes so far this competition. They have played a defensive 4-2-2-2 in each of their first two games, which should mean more total shots for Güler.
In turn, more shots means more corners. Real Madrid has allowed the fifth-most shots on target per 90 minutes so far this competition, with Salzburg allowing the 11th-most. With both Courtois and 18-year-old Christian Zawieschitzky needing to be active in between the sticks, both teams’ games have included plenty of corners. Salzburg’s two games have seen 26 total corners, and Madrid’s have seen 20. Los Blancos also drew the second-most corner kicks in La Liga last season.
