The Devers game! The Giants and Red Sox are set to collide tonight at Oracle Park, but this matchup isn’t just about two teams battling for playoff position. The headline? Rafael Devers, now in San Francisco after a shocking trade from Boston, will face his former team for the first time since the deal went down. The stakes are high, and the air is thick with anticipation. Devers, a catalyst for the Red Sox offense this season, will look to send a message to his old squad. Meanwhile, Boston, riding the momentum of a 4-1 stretch on the road, is primed to make this a statement game of their own. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Giants and Red Sox.
Note: DraftKings Network is all over Rafael Devers’ first game against the Red Sox! My venerable colleague Steve Buchanan has a full analysis on the trade, betting market, and his favorite Devers prop bets here. There’s a lot of value in Devers tonight, as you’ll see.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Giants vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Boston has been playing some of its best ball in weeks. A strong pitching performance from Hunter Dobbins (4-1, 3.74 ERA) has kept them competitive, and even with injuries to key players like Bregman, they’ve found ways to win. Dobbins has been solid on the mound, particularly against left-handed hitters, and that could work to his advantage against the Giants’ lefty-heavy lineup. Dobbins owns a 92nd percentile rank in walk percentage (3.6 BB/9) and a 69th percentile barrel rate, reflecting his ability to avoid hard contact. However, Dobbins struggles with the long ball—his six home runs allowed this season could be an issue in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park. The Giants’ lineup, though anemic at times, has shown flashes against right-handed pitchers with a .870 OPS and 148 wRC+ over the last 10 days, suggesting they can make the most of his mistakes.
Despite their recent struggles, the Giants will put the ball in the hands of Hayden Birdsong, who’s been outstanding with a 2.79 ERA and 51 strikeouts in just 48.1 innings this season. Birdsong has a stellar 66th percentile expected ERA (xERA) of 3.63, a testament to his ability to suppress hard contact and manage his pitch arsenal effectively. His 24.5% strikeout rate and 73rd percentile barrel rate show that he can generate whiffs and keep hitters off balance. Birdsong has been tough at home, where his ERA sits at 1.78 in 8 starts. While his walk rate (9.1%) is higher than ideal, his ability to limit damage through the air with only five home runs allowed this season has been critical to his success. San Francisco’s pitching staff overall ranks fifth in runs allowed, and with their ace at home, they’ll look to neutralize Boston’s power.
Red Sox vs. Giants pick, best bet
Devers’ first meeting with his former team is undoubtedly the focal point here, but this game could be more about the pitching battle. While both teams have shown struggles with their offenses, the Giants have been historically tough to hit at home. Even with the underwhelming form of their hitters, they have the advantage with a strong pitching staff and the added fuel of facing their former slugger, Devers. Boston, on the other hand, has kept games close with solid pitching but has struggled against right-handed starters like Birdsong. In fact, Boston’s offense has managed only a .601 OPS and a paltry 64 wRC+ against righties over the last 10 days, illustrating their inefficiency against quality arms.
Looking at the betting trends, the Giants have been playing under the total in eight of their last 10 games at home, while the Red Sox have been on an under run as well. With both teams’ recent struggles at the plate and solid pitching, the under seems like the clear play here, especially considering the low 7.5 total. This is a tight, low-scoring affair with pitching poised to dominate, and I’m locking in the under 7.5 as the best bet tonight.
Best bet: Giants vs. Red Sox u7.5 total runs (-115)
Big ballyhoo, quiet bats—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
