Anyone else feel like there were about seventy-billion home runs hit last night? Good. Baseball was getting too caught up in all its front office storylines; glad the players brought our attention back to the field in a big way. For today’s slate, so far I’ve written up the Nationals vs. Rockies, Cubs vs. Brewers, and Braves vs. Mets games for this evening. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Kyle Tucker 2+ total bases vs. Milwaukee Brewers (+155)
Tucker has been in excellent form, slashing .284 with 13 home runs, 15 doubles, and a .515 slugging percentage in 2025. He’s been particularly effective against right-handed pitchers, posting a .383 wOBA and .225 ISO. Tonight, Tucker faces Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, who will be making just his second MLB start. Misiorowski dazzled in his debut, striking out five and allowing no hits, but his command was shaky—he walked four in five innings. Tucker thrives against pitchers with control issues and should capitalize on any mistakes Misiorowski makes, especially with his ability to hit for both power and average.
Tucker’s plate discipline is also a major factor. His 10.9% walk rate and 18.1% strikeout rate show a hitter who can work counts and create opportunities for extra bases. With Misiorowski’s high walk rate in the minors (4.41 BB/9), Tucker could easily reach base multiple times.
Add in that Wrigley Field is playing to Tucker’s strengths today. With the wind blowing out, this is an environment that benefits hitters with power like Tucker. Expect Tucker to make solid contact, whether it’s a double off the wall or a home run, securing his place over two total bases. The matchup lines up perfectly for Tucker to keep rolling with another strong performance at the plate tonight.
Just need to hope the game doesn’t get rained out.
Braves vs. Mets u8.5 total runs (-105)
Chris Sale has been lights out for Atlanta. With a 2.79 ERA over 14 starts, he’s been on a roll, allowing just three earned runs over his last 33 innings. Sale’s ability to dominate hitters, particularly with his 31.7% strikeout rate, will likely keep the Mets’ lineup, which is missing key bats, in check. They’ve struggled on the road lately, with their bats cooling off in recent games. With the wind blowing out at Truist Park, this could help Sale’s ability to get the ball in the air for easy outs.
On the other side, Paul Blackburn has struggled in a small sample size. Despite a decent showing in his first start, he carries a 6.75 ERA into this game. His control issues (1.71 WHIP) could get him into trouble, but the Braves’ offense, while talented, has been hit-or-miss this season. They have the potential for explosive innings, but with Blackburn’s ability to induce ground balls and the Braves’ tendency to underperform with runners in scoring position, I don’t see them running up the score.
Long-view? the Braves have hit the under in 30 of their last 54 games, and the Mets have been involved in low-scoring games during their recent skid. This, paired with Sale’s dominance, points to a tight, low-scoring game.
Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a HR vs. Milwaukee Brewers (+650)
Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA, PCAllstar, MVPete, etc.) is locked in right now, and betting him to hit a home run at +650 is a no-brainer bold move tonight. He’s been scorching hot, crushing 19 home runs already this season, and his power metrics scream breakout potential. In his last 15 games, PCA’s hard-hit rate is sitting at 43.6%, showing he’s consistently generating solid contact. What makes this even more exciting is his 94.2 mph average exit velocity on flyballs, which is well above the MLB average and indicates serious power potential—especially in the conditions we’re seeing tonight at Wrigley Field.
Facing Jacob Misiorowski, a rookie with only one MLB start and (small-sample) control issues (four walks in 81 pitches), PCA has the perfect chance to exploit mistakes. Misiorowski’s high pitch velocity (102 mph) can get the ball up in the zone, which plays into PCA’s strength—especially with a .232 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. The wind blowing out to right field at Wrigley amplifies the potential for PCA’s already impressive 45% fly ball rate to turn into more home runs.
Lock this one in—PCA’s the real deal. I’ve been saying it since March 5th, and here’s the receipt! and tonight’s conditions at Wrigley—so long as the game isn’t altogether rained out—set him up to deliver another bomb. This is a value bet you don’t want to miss at +650.
