The Nationals are due for a necessary win, but don’t expect this to be an easy path. The Rockies are coming off an explosive 10-6 win, capped by a historic seven home runs. But don’t let that fool you—Colorado is still a team teetering on the edge of irrelevance. Washington has their back against the wall after 10 straight losses, but a pitching advantage with Mitchell Parker on the mound tips the scales. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Nationals and the Rockies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Nationals vs. Rockies prediction, preview
Mitchell Parker, while not the most dominant arm, offers a more stable option than the erratic German Marquez, who has a horrendous 6.62 ERA and 1.66 WHIP on the season. Marquez’s struggles are compounded by his 45.7% hard contact rate, the sixth-highest in MLB, which makes this matchup a nightmare against Washington’s hitters—especially James Wood. Wood leads the Nats with 18 home runs and 51 RBIs, sporting a .281 average and a stellar .928 OPS. Marquez has allowed left-handed batters to hit .302 with a .542 slugging percentage this season, which puts Wood in a prime position to add to his totals tonight.
While Parker has shown control issues with a 3.7 BB/9 rate, he has an ERA of 3.97 at home—far better than his road numbers (5.81 ERA). This is a huge advantage for the Nats, especially when you consider Colorado’s offense has been underwhelming. The Rockies rank 28th in runs scored per game (3.5), with a .226 batting average and a strikeout rate of 9.7 K’s per game—dead last in the league. Their inability to make contact consistently should give Parker a chance to settle in and manage the game. Expect Parker to get his strikeouts, especially against this aggressive Rockies lineup.
The bullpen is another area where Washington holds the edge. Colorado’s bullpen has been dismal, ranking 29th in ERA (5.81) and 30th in WHIP (1.57). The Nationals’ bullpen, while not elite, boasts a 3.12 ERA from Jose Ferrer and 18 saves from Kyle Finnegan, who has been effective in high-leverage situations. This contrast will be key late in the game when the Nationals’ superior bullpen should provide the finishing touches on a win.
Rockies vs. Nationals pick, best bet
Washington has been struggling lately, but the conditions tonight favor hitters, with light winds blowing out to left-center and moderate humidity. Both teams have been hitting the over recently, with Washington going over in four of their last six home games and Colorado hitting the over in seven of their last 10 road games. Although neither offense is elite, both have shown signs of life, and with the total set at 9.5, I expect the game to surpass that number.
The Nationals, despite their recent struggles, are still better positioned for a bounce-back, particularly with Marquez on the mound for Colorado. Marquez has been inconsistent this season, allowing 3+ earned runs in 12 of his 14 starts. While Washington has been dismal as a favorite this season, they’ve been better at covering the run line in this spot, and their bullpen gives them the upper hand in the late innings. The Rockies, on the other hand, have been dreadful on the road, with a 9-30 record, and Marquez’s struggles on the road continue to be a concern. Washington is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight matchups with Colorado.
Washington at -1.5 (+125) feels like the right pick tonight. The Nationals’ superior bullpen should shine late, and the Rockies’ road woes paired with Marquez’s inconsistency make this a comfortable spot for the Nats to grab a win.
Best bet: Nationals -1.5 (+125) vs. Rockies
Dangerous game picking the Nats, but they’re due!—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
