This season, the New York Yankees rank second in the league in OPS and homers, are third in runs, and lead the AL East by three and a half games. The Bronx Bombers have done all of this despite missing the services of one of their former MVP’s, in part because Aaron Judge has been so otherworldly good.
Now, Judge’s bashing mate is back. The Yankees are expected to activate Giancarlo Stanton for tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Angels, as the slugger will make his season debut after injuries to both of his elbows. In seven seasons in the pinstripes, Stanton has slashed .241/.323/.483, mashed 162 home runs in 663 games.
New York is a 1.5-run favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook and the total is set for 8.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bet that I’m expecting the 2017 NL MVP to hit in his return.
Best Giancarlo Stanton Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Giancarlo Stanton 1+ RBI’s (+160)
This prop says a lot more about the Yankees’ offense around Stanton than it does about the 35-year-old himself, but when he’s been healthy, he’s typically either hit fourth or fifth in the lineup. In his absence, New York has generally started Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, and Judge in the first three slots against right-handers in some order. However, Stanton’s return is likely to come at the expense of Rice, the Yankees’ designated hitter, and the last time Rice sat, Paul Goldschmidt moved to the top of the lineup. Assuming New York puts Grisham, Goldschmidt, and Judge ahead of Stanton, that’s three hitters who get on base more than a third of time (and, in Judge’s case, nearly half the time).
If he gets up to bat with a runner on base — especially if he’s on third — Stanton won’t have to do too much to drive in a run. Enter Angels starter José Soriano, who combines a 34th-percentile expected batting average with a 14th-percentile walk rate, and it becomes easy to imagine a scenario in which all of Stanton’s plate appearances come with at least one runner on. Plus, while the flame-throwing Soriano’s only strength is inducing ground balls — thanks to his reliance on his sinker, he has a 99th-percentile ground ball rate — Grisham, Goldschmidt, Judge, and Stanton all get the ball in the air at above-average rates. Then, once Soriano leaves the game, the Angels’ bullpen has posted the league’s third-highest ERA this season, so Stanton should have plenty of opportunities to drive his teammates in.
