With the NBA Finals taking a break in between Games 3 and 4 and the WNBA not in action tonight, sports fans’ attention turns squarely to the US Open and to baseball. Thankfully, there will be baseball action all day, as there’s a three-game early slate currently underway and a four-game late slate set to lock at 7:40 p.m. ET.
Although it’s a small slate, it’s a mighty one, as two of the league’s best teams — the 41-win New York Yankees and 41-win Chicago Cubs — will be in action. That means only one thing: Aaron Judge ($6,600) baseball. Here are three must-start players from tonight’s slate, including Judge.
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SP Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, $9,200
Gray has been unbelievable in his last two starts, combining for 13.1 innings, 12 hits, zero runs, one walk, and 15 strikeouts (30.2 FPTS per game), and all things considered, the future Hall of Very Good member is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. I would’ve gone with Framber Valdez ($9,800) here, given that I put him first on my pitcher rankings column, but I wanted to save a little bit of salary for Judge. But Gray should certainly do the job; he’s tossed six or more frames in four of his last six starts and given up zero earned runs in each of those four.
Though he’s prone to the occasional mis-step — a 3.2-inning, seven-run (-3.2-FPT) outing against the Philadelphia Phillies on May 14 certainly qualifies as one of those — he’s largely dominated when he’s come up against a mediocre offense. In recent weeks, the Brewers have been just that, as they have the league’s second-lowest OPS so far in June and own the lowest barrel rate and average exit velocity of any team in the league. They also have the league’s worst OPS at home. Milwaukee did get to him for three runs in six innings on April 26, but the Brewers had an above-average OPS at that point and he still recorded a quality start.
OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals, $6,600
Judge is a must-have in any lineup regardless of cost. We’re more than 40% of the way through the season and Judge is still hitting nearly .400, and given that he has hit .400 over his last 10 games, he’s showing no signs of slowing down. In his last three games, he’s hit four homers, and he’s recorded 20 or more FPTS in four of his last five appearances. There’s arguably never been less of a debate about who the best hitter in baseball is, but given that Judge leads all of the major leagues in hits, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, rOBA, Rbat+, total bases, and intentional walks, it’s pretty hard to deny.
Seth Lugo ($7,800) is a fine pitcher, but he’s gotten exceptionally lucky this season, since his expected ERA is nearly two runs worse than his 3.46 mark. He induces whiffs at just a ninth percentile rate, neutralizing Judge’s sole weakness, and he ranks eighth in the American League in homers conceded. Lugo has also started to throw his cutter more and more despite allowing a .683 expected slugging percentage on the pitch, which would be a bad move against Judge, who has slugged 1.500 against cutters so far this season. Frankly, though, anything but an intentional walk is a bad move against Judge.
C Yainer Díaz, Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox, $3,400
Díaz has been swinging a fairly hot bat, with four multi-hit games in his last six outings, and though he’s gone hitless in the other two games, that still leaves him with a solid .256/.268/.436 slash line across his last 10 games (6.8 FPTS per game). He’s also had double-digit fantasy points in two of his last four games, so his ceiling is high, and he’s also produced 1.1 more FPTS per game at home than on the road. In five games this season against the White Sox, he’s slashing .421/.455/.684 (11 FPTS per game), including one of his eight homers.
Davis Martin ($6,500), meanwhile, has been fine this season, and he’s given up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts, but he wasn’t very effective in his one game against the Astros, pitching five frames of three-run, eight-hit (10.5-FPT) ball. He also has reverse splits, allowing a significantly higher OPS to righties than to lefties. Plus, once Martin is out of the game, Díaz should have plenty of chances to take advantage of Chicago’s bullpen, which has the ninth-worst ERA this season.
