The NASCAR Cup Series is going international. It’s stock cars south of the border on Sunday. Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez makes its debut on the NASCAR Cup Series road course circuit. As always, trust the data but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Viva Mexico 250 at Mexico City.
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Race Winner — Viva Mexico 250
Tyler Reddick +2200
The Chilango 150 on Saturday was tamed. The Xfinity Series drivers played nice for all but one lap. That one lap was a doozy, and it flipped the race on its head. The favorite got taken out on the Stage 3 restart, along with a dozen other cars. The hometown favorite assumed the lead, and the Americans agreed to play nice on subsequent restarts. What’s going to happen on Sunday?
Shane van Gisbergen (+200) is the favorite. The playing field is wide open because notebooks are empty. SVG also benefited from the absence of SMT. During practice, drivers couldn’t review data between the two sessions to improve their runs. Road course skill is at an all-time premium in Mexico. Van Gisbergen is the best road racer, and it’s been on full display this weekend. His practice laps were the fastest, and he earned the pole. No one has a chance, but everyone has a chance. A clean race is won by the Kiwi. Does anyone expect clean? Even the Kiwi knows it will be crazy.
It’s absurd that Reddick’s odds are this long. He’s a top-five road course driver. It’s been a while since his last road course win, but during the drought, he’s still earned top-five finishes. Reddick should be in the mix if and when this race turns on its head. He showed plenty of speed in practice. The question is: which driver makes the fewest mistakes? The drivers who have won before.
Race Winner — Viva Mexico 250
Chase Elliott +1200
Practice went well for the No. 9 Hendrick Chevy Team. Elliott’s first run in session one was strong. He slapped on fresh tires and improved in his second run. His second session was flawless, and his car is quick—so is he.
This is an inaugural road course race, and no one has been better at empty-notebook events. Elliott won the first races at Road America, COTA and the Daytona Road Course. He finished fourth at the 2021 Indy GP, third at the 2023 Chicago Street Circuit and sixth at the Charlotte Roval in 2018.
