Update: Murray is unlikely to play, although he officially is still listed as questionable. The Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites and the total comes in at 216. I still like the Cavaliers as the ATS pick and the under on the total.
The Cleveland Cavaliers (45-29) will meet the Denver Nuggets (51-23) Sunday afternoon with both teams hoping to rediscover their mojo late in the season. The Cavaliers won in their last game but have lost six of their last 10 while the Nuggets have dropped two in a row. The Cavaliers won the first meeting between these teams 121-109. Denver didn’t have Jamal Murray in that game and Cleveland didn’t have Donovan Mitchell.
Mitchell is available as he deals with a nasal fracture while Caris LeVert is probable. Craig Porter Jr. is doubtful and Isaac Okoro is questionable. Nikola Jokic is probable for the Nuggets, while Murray remains questionable as he battles a knee injury.
The Nuggets are 5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total coming in at 215.5. Denver is -192 on the moneyline while Cleveland is +160.
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets, 3:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Cavaliers +5
Cleveland is 13-12 ATS as the underdog this season and 9-8 ATS as a road underdog. Denver is 29-8 straight up at home but has been struggling of late with Murray sidelined. The Nuggets are 28-34-2 ATS as favorites and 17-18-1 ATS as home favorites. They have covered the spread twice in their last seven games.
Even though Denver has a fantastic home record, I do think the Cavaliers will be able to keep this close enough to cover the spread. This line could tighten a bit if Murray is ruled out, and I still would back Cleveland against the number if that happens.
Over/Under: Under 215.5
The Cavaliers are 35-38-1 to the over this season while the Nuggets are 30-44 to the over. Denver is particularly good at hitting home unders, going 16-21 to the over in the Mile High City. I don’t see this game going over, even on a relatively lower number.