This will be the second game of a four-game series in Chavez Ravine.
Tylor Megill is scheduled to pitch for New York while Clayton Kershaw should get the nod for Los Angeles.
Mets at Dodgers prediction, preview
Tylor Megill posted a sub-3 BB/9 in his first two MLB seasons. That number spiked to 4.13 in 2023 and is currently at 4.53 in 53.2 innings. At least there have certainly been tradeoffs, as he’s been excellent at keeping the ball in the yard now and the strikeout rate has spiked to 30.4%! The BABIP is a slightly elevated .323 while the 3.52 ERA is higher than the 3.1 FIP, so he’s been a tad unfortunate. The splits are tilted towards being better against right-handed batters and on the road. Nothing too crazy, though. The stat that stands out the most is the walk rate against lefties and at home, higher than against righties and on the road. There was a three-game stretch in early May when Megill allowed four earned runs in three straight starts. Outside of that patch, Megill has been fantastic, allowing two or fewer earned runs in seven starts, with three of those shutouts.
Against right-handed pitching, the Dodgers have struck out at the 16th-highest rate while having the third-best ISO. The wOBA is best in MLB.
Clayton Kershaw has only pitched 11 innings this season, and they haven’t been good innings. The strikeout rate is only 12.8% while the walk rate is 12.8%. The 4.91 ERA is supported by the 4.81 FIP while the swinging strike rate is 9.3% and the chase rate is only 20.4%. Father Time truly is undefeated. Just two seasons ago, Kershaw had a 26.2% strikeout rate at 35 years old. That said, five of the six earned runs allowed came in his first start of the season. In his most recent start, Kershaw went five innings, walked two, struck out three and allowed only one earned run on six hits.
The Mets have struck out at the sixth-lowest rate against left-handed pitching while being eighth in ISO. The wOBA is ninth-best.
As for bullpens, New York has the lowest FIP while Los Angeles has the 14th-lowest.
Mets at Dodgers pick, best bet
The Mets pitching staff has been, dare I say, amazing. The bullpen is great but I worry about Megill a bit in this one. The control has been suspect and the Dodgers are tops in wOBA. As for Kershaw, he no longer misses bats and the Mets don’t strike out much against lefties while having tremendous power. I like both teams to put up at least five runs each. The Dodgers bullpen has been suspect while the Mets have lights out, so I like New York to pull out the win in a high-scoring affair.
