This will be the opener of a four-game series in San Francisco.
San Diego is 32-24 on the season and 13-14 on the road. San Francisco is 33-26 and 17-9 at home. San Diego is second in the National League West while San Francisco is only a half game behind in the NL West. The division-leading Dodgers are only three games up.
San Diego just completed a six-game homestand against the Marlins and Pirates, going 4-2. San Francisco is coming home after a nine-game road trip in Washington, Detroit and Miami. The Giants went 4-5.
These two teams met at the end of April for two games in San Diego. The Padres won both games, 7-4 and 5-3.
Stephen Kolek is scheduled to pitch for San Diego while Logan Webb should get the nod for San Francisco.
Padres at Giants prediction, preview
Stephen Kolek is a groundball master who keeps the ball in the yard. The groundball rate is 56.4% while he’s allowed only three home runs in 30.2 innings so far this season. The strikeout rate is only 18.6% and the ERA is 4.11, but the FIP is slightly lower at 3.87. Left-handed batters have had more success against Kolek this season and all three home runs allowed have come against them. He’s also been better on the road, albeit in a small sample size. Kolek has gone at least five innings in all five starts. After posting shutouts in the first two starts of the season, he’s allowed five, three and six earned runs.
Against right-handed pitching, the Giants have struck out at the 13th-highest rate while having the 19th-best ISO. The wOBA is 23rd-best.
Logan Webb has been brilliant to start this season. The control has always been excellent and the long ball has never been an issue. Those qualities have been maintained through 73.1 innings so far. The big change has been the strikeout rate. It’s at 27.9% while the K-BB% is at 22.3%, both career-highs. The K/9 is currently 10.31, the first time in double-digits. A 2.82 ERA is good, but Webb may have been getting unlucky with a .347 BABIP and the FIP is at 2.2! Lefties have had more success against Webb, as the wOBA is .331 compared to .262. Webb has been better at home, which doesn’t surprise. He’s allowed only one home run at home while the ERA is 1.39 vs. 3.95 on the road. Webb has allowed more than three earned runs in a game just once. He has three games with double-digit strikeouts. He faced the Padres back on April 29th, going five innings, walking one, striking out six and allowing a season-high five earned runs on nine hits. That game was in San Diego.
The Padres have struck out at the third-lowest rate against right-handed pitching while being 23rd in ISO. The wOBA is 16th-best.
As for bullpens, San Diego has the 10th-lowest FIP while San Francisco has the third-lowest.
Padres at Giants pick, best bet
Kolek has gotten blasted in two of his three most recent starts, but those were at home. He’s been much better on the road and, with his groundball leaning ways and matchup against a not-so-imposing Giants offense in a pitcher-friendly park, I think he and the pen can limit the number of runs scored. The Padres’ offense lit up Webb earlier in the season, but that game was in San Diego. Webb pitches very well at home and I’m expecting a tight, low-scoring game.
