Two straight wins have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder up 2-0 in the Western Conference Finals. Now, with the series headed to Minneapolis, can Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves respond in this must-win Game 3? Before the start of tonight’s contest, get in on the action with DraftKings NBA Pick6 fantasy basketball!
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander more than 32.5 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the NBA’s newest MVP, has been on an absolute tear this postseason. Through 13 games, the guard has averaged 29.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 6.7 assists. In Game 2, the Thunder leaned on their point guard en route to a 38-point, eight-assist performance against the Timberwolves. The performance marked SGA’s second-straight 30-point outing in this series. That’s no small feat, especially when facing an elite Minnesota defense.
While most players would struggle against the Wolves, that hasn’t been the case for Gilgeous-Alexander. The three-time All-Star has scored at least 33 points in eight of his previous ten meetings with Minnesota. At this point, Oklahoma City’s face of the franchise is on an absolute tear. Until proven otherwise, expect another outstanding performance from SGA on Saturday.
Julius Randle more than 23.5 points + assists
In many ways, Julius Randle (not Anthony Edwards) has been Minnesota’s best player this postseason. The bruising power forward has averaged 22.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.4 assists during his last 12 outings. Those numbers have been crucial for the Timberwolves, especially with Edwards’ inconsistent shooting as of late. It’s no surprise that Minnesota got destroyed in Game 2, as Randle only scored six points on 2-of-11 shooting.
As bad as Thursday was for Randle, expect a much better showing tonight. He’s notched at least 24 points + assists in ten of his 12 playoff appearances. As good as the Thunder are on defense, the three-time All-Star has had plenty of success in this spot. Over his last eight games against OKC, Randle has averaged 22.0 points and 5.0 assists. Keeping that in mind, there’s a good chance the veteran returns to form tonight.
Chet Holmgren more than 15.5 points
One of the bigger question marks for Oklahoma City is how they’ll hold up down low. The duo of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein has done a terrific job all season long. However, neither are considered secondary stars next to Gilgeous-Alexander. Holmgren has been consistently good, not great, this entire postseason. The Gonzaga alum has put up at least 15 points in seven of his 13 playoff games, but he’s dropped 20 points only three times.
Even if OKC’s big man isn’t a prolific scorer, he’s someone opposing defenses need to account for. That wasn’t the case in Game 2, during which Holmgren notched 22 points over 31 minutes of play. There’s a decent chance that continues on Saturday due to the struggles of Rudy Gobert. Minnesota’s starting center has been borderline unplayable during this series, largely due to the Thunder’s small-ball lineup. If the Frenchman receives limited playing time tonight, Holmgren should have a far easier time driving down the lane.
Rudy Gobert less than 1.5 steals + blocks
Speaking of Gobert, it’s not exactly a shock that he’s having trouble in this series. As we saw during 2024’s Western Conference Finals vs. Dallas, the center is very matchup-dependent. Against teams that can shoot and push the pace, it’s difficult to justify playing an offensively-limited rim protector. That’s been the case in Games 1 & 2. During that time, Gobert has tallied a combined seven points and 12 rebounds.
The Timberwolves will likely give last season’s Defensive Player of the Year the start tonight. After that, with Minnesota’s season on the line, anything goes. Assuming the Thunder utilize a small-ball lineup for most of Saturday’s game, it becomes very difficult to justify leaving a non-shooting seven-footer on the court. If head coach Chris Finch goes in another direction, expect backup center Naz Reid to get more burn in Game 3. Regardless, it’s tough to imagine Gobert playing enough to make a significant impact on defense.
Isaiah Hartenstein less than 7.5 rebounds
Throughout his career, Isaiah Hartenstein has done all of the ‘little things’ that don’t appear in the box score. The defensively-minded center was signed away from the Knicks this offseason to give OKC more grit down low. In that regard, mission accomplished: the Thunder allowed the fewest points in the paint per game this season (41.5). Still, it’s often difficult for I-Hart to put up counting stats when sharing time with Chet Holmgren.
Hartenstein has had 18 total points and 12 total rebounds in the first two games of this series. Those numbers, while respectable, don’t exactly jump off the page. During those contests, the big man has only played an average of 23.2 minutes. This season, the Timberwolves held opponents to 50.7 boards per game, the fifth-lowest mark in basketball. A limited workload against a terrific rebounding team doesn’t bode well for Hartenstein on the glass.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker more than 7.5 points
One of the lone bright spots for the Timberwolves in Game 2 was their production off the bench. Minnesota’s four backups combined for 38 points, 16 rebounds and eight assists. Leading the charge was Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who scored 17 points on five-of-eight shooting. Despite inconsistent playing time this postseason, the guard is probably in line for a decent workload after Thursday’s performance.
An even bigger reason to play NAW? His surprisingly good track record against the Thunder. The 26-year-old has averaged 15.6 points on 48.1% shooting during his previous five meetings with Oklahoma City. Minnesota could use Alexander-Walker’s skillset, as he’s a 38.5% three-point shooter since 2023. Going up against a 68-win juggernaut, the Wolves need any edge they can get. Perhaps their sharpshooting guard can provide that extra spark on Saturday.
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