The NBA season began with a three-game slate last night, but the real fun tips off tonight. On Wednesday, almost every team is in action around the league. In the Lone Star State, the Dallas Mavericks and second-year star Cooper Flagg head southward to play the Houston Rockets, once again led by future Hall-of-Famer Kevin Durant. There’s a lot of youth on both sides of this matchup, though one team is in the early stages of a rebuild while the other is firmly positioned in its title window.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Mavericks vs. Rockets matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction, preview
The Mavs aren’t expecting to win a ton of games this year, but they are likely looking to improve on last season’s result. They went 26-56 overall and finished 12th in the Western Conference as they truly dove into their rebuild. Cooper Flagg, last year’s No. 1 selection, was excellent as a rookie with 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. The reigning Rookie of the Year now has a new head coach in former Michigan leader Dusty May, and beyond the change on the bench, there’s some new talent in town. The franchise used the ninth-overall pick on former Wolverine Morez Johnson Jr., added Zaccharie Risacher as a reclamation project with upside and also brought in Santi Aldama (though he’s out due to surgery recovery at the moment). The frontcourt looks quite solid between those names and P.J. Washington, and at some point, big man Dereck Lively II should be healthy enough to play. Of course, Kyrie Irving is back on the floor after rehabbing a torn ACL that sidelined him for the entirety of last season, but he’s also 34 and clearly isn’t a part of the long-term picture here, even if he plays well in his return. There’s little backcourt depth to speak of, so perhaps the Flagg experiment in the backcourt will continue. The lack of steady guard play could be an issue, as could the overall youth on this roster when it comes to matchups like this one. There’s a lot to be excited about in Dallas, though, even if the wins don’t come yet.
Looking at the Rockets, this team is firmly in its title window but is yet to deliver in the postseason. After two consecutive seasons with 50+ wins that flamed out in first-round exits, there’s been plenty of disappointment ever since Kevin Durant joined the fray. The former MVP remains as great as ever with 26.0 PPG last year, and while he’s not getting any younger at 38 years old, he’s surely still going to continue scoring the ball like one of the league’s best. He’s flanked by names like Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, who are stars in their own right. The former needs to take his game up a step but posted 20.4 points with 8.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists last year; the latter is a defensive stud and secured a long-term extension with 18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists while providing versatile usage on both sides of the ball. Players like Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason play supporting roles, but the best news for Houston is that Fred VanVleet is healthy after a torn ACL kept him out for all of last year – much like Irving – and Steven Adams should be good to go this year after missing much of the 2025-26 campaign, too (though he’s also questionable for tonight due to calf soreness). This roster appears to be at full strength and will provide the same suffocating defense as it’s become known for under Ime Udoka, and the hope is that barring injury, there’s depth to survive a deep postseason run.
Mavericks vs. Rockets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as a 9.5-point favorite at home tonight with -440 odds on the Moneyline. The Mavericks are a +340 underdog to win outright with the total set at 230.5 combined points.
This is a game that Houston should win somewhat handily. The Rockets ranked sixth in NETRTG at +5.4 last season despite missing VanVleet for the entire year, which led to some stagnant offense without the floor general out there. He should help stabilize an attack that really struggled in the halfcourt at times; his impact cannot be understated. There are plenty of sources when it comes to scoring, too, and the defense also ranked sixth in DEFRTG last year and now runs back largely an identical core. The Mavericks did improve over the offseason, sure, and the return of Irving is a nice plus that should provide an infusion of scoring punch if he’s anything like his old self. Even still, Dallas was 22nd in NETRTG at -5.2 last year and doesn’t have the same kind of stacked roster that the home team does. This should be a fairly competitive game, but the Rockets have a clear upper hand and should have the kind of two-way impact to cover this spread and win by double digits in their opener.
