The Cubs enter Miami after a dominant sweep of the White Sox, carrying momentum into a pivotal matchup. Chicago has won five of their last six games, fueled by an offense that leads the league in scoring. The Marlins, despite a strong win against Tampa Bay, sit at the bottom of the NL East, and have major offensive gaps in their roster. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday baseball game between the Marlins and the Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Marlins vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Ben Brown (3-3, 4.75 ERA) gets the ball for Chicago. The right-hander is better than you think, but he struggles with command. A 1.56 WHIP is ugly. His 10.8 K/9 is slick, but he’s allowed 49 hits and 16 walks in 41.2 innings. His xFIP of 4.23 suggests a slightly better performance than his ERA indicates, so watch out for that.
Miami will counter with Edward Cabrera (0-1, 5.52 ERA), whose control issues (1.53 WHIP) have plagued him this season. Cabrera has allowed 32 hits and 18 runs in just 29.1 innings. While Cabrera has been decent against the Cubs in his career (3.96 ERA), his form this year makes him vulnerable.
Chicago’s offense has been a powerhouse, ranking second in MLB in runs scored and third in home runs. Pete Crow-Armstrong, with a .524 average over his last five games, has been scorching hot, driving in 10 RBIs. Crow-Armstrong ranks fourth in wRC+ (169) over the past two weeks, showing elite production. Not even Pete Crow-Armstrong’s biggest fans and most adoring crushes (me) expected this sort of production right out the 2025 gate.
Kyle Tucker adds plenty of lineup protection with 10 homers and 33 RBIs, but he’s slowed down since the beginning of the year. Tucker’s .522 slugging percentage ranks in the top 20 among qualified batters. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are hitting .253 and .290, respectively, rounding out a deep lineup. Even with Brown’s inconsistencies on the mound, the Cubs have enough firepower to secure a win.
Miami, led by Kyle Stowers (.305, 10 HR, 30 RBIs), has been inconsistent. Stowers is on a six-game hit streak, but the rest of the Marlins’ lineup struggles. Still, Stowers’ .563 slugging percentage ranks ninth among MLB outfielders. Eric Wagaman and Otto Lopez provide some pop, but their numbers don’t compare to Chicago’s firepower. Miami’s offense is ranked 19th in runs scored, and their inability to consistently generate offense makes this matchup a tough one.
The Marlins’ pitching has been subpar as well. Cabrera has given up 13 walks and five home runs in 29.1 innings. His 5.52 ERA and 1.53 WHIP are troubling, especially against a Cubs offense that can capitalize on pitching mistakes. Even if Cabrera can limit damage early, his bullpen is equally unreliable. Miami’s 5.34 team ERA ranks 28th in MLB, and the Marlins have struggled to stop opposing offenses from putting up big numbers.
Cubs vs. Marlins pick, best bet
The Cubs are 67% winners as favorites this season, and they’ve been strong on the road. They’ve won six of their last seven as road favorites following a home win. The Cubs are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games following a win. The Marlins have dropped seven of their last eight home games against the Cubs following a win. With Cabrera’s issues on the mound and Chicago’s offensive firepower, the Cubs are poised cover the spread.
The over is a stronger play here. The Cubs are averaging 6.2 runs per game in their last six contests. Miami, while struggling, has the potential to score enough to make this game go over. The Marlins’ bullpen, combined with Cabrera’s command issues, will give the Cubs opportunities to put up runs.
The Cubs are 5-1 in their last six road games as favorites, and 5-4 against Miami this season. We’ll call the over our best bet, here. But the runline is in play.
Best bet: Cubs vs. Marlins over 8.5 total runs (-120)
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the Prince that was Promised—tail it with me in the DKN betting group here!
