For a year now, Max Homa has been lost. He hasn’t recorded a top-10 finish on the PGA TOUR since the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship 53 weeks ago, when a two-under 69 on Sunday propelled him into a tie for eighth. Since then, the former No. 5 player in the world has dropped all the way down to No. 78, and he has missed eight cuts and withdrawn once in 23 events. He’s made the U.S. national team for each of the past three international tournaments, but he looked extremely unlikely to make it this season, sitting just 28th in U.S. Ryder Cup standings. Entering this week’s PGA Championship, Homa had just +16000 odds to win at DraftKings Sportsbook and attracted only 1% of the handle.
Homa’s prognosis looked even bleaker after a first round in which he made a bogey and a double bogey on two of his final four holes to shoot a two-over 73 and seemingly relegate him to his sixth missed cut of the season. In that first round, he ranked 128th in the 156-man field in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, seemingly continuing a disastrous season in which he ranks second-to-last on TOUR in that category. He only hit 10 of the 18 greens and only got up-and-down when he missed the green five times, ranking 120th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. His odds dropped to +70000.
But especially at its highest level, golf is a fickle game. Homa started on the back nine this morning and made birdie on the par-five 10th hole, chipping to a foot. He then one-upped himself four holes later, putting his tee shot on the 341-yard par four to 21 inches and tapping in for an eagle that moved him back into red figures. By the time the front-nine birdie barrage was over, he had shot a bogey-free, six-under 30, tied for his best nine-hole score on the PGA TOUR. He then made two more birdies and one bogey on the back nine, finishing with a seven-under 64, his best round in a major by three strokes. Currently, he ranks first in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and, critically, 17th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green among players who have finished their second round. With the second round yet to be completed, he’s in a tie for third — five strokes behind Jhonattan Vegas — and has +2000 odds to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, the fifth-shortest.
Homa winning the tournament wouldn’t be super likely; Bryson DeChambeau is just two shots behind him and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler sits at -2 after the first round, and it’s far from a guarantee that Vegas, a big-hitting veteran with four PGA TOUR wins to his name, will fall back. But his game is trending in the right direction. He tied for 12th at The Masters five weeks ago and shot three rounds of par or better in a tie for 30th at last weekend’s Truist Championship. His +150 odds to finish in the top 10 are pretty friendly, with wind gusts set to pick up ever so slightly this afternoon.
Plus, Homa has an excellent history at the course, proclaiming to have “always loved this place” prior to the first round. In six starts at the Wells Fargo Championship, he finished in the top 10 three times, including a victory in 2019. He also won the tournament in 2022, when it was held at TPC Potomac at Avenal Farm in Maryland instead as Quail Hollow prepared to host the 2022 Presidents Cup, where Homa was the best-performing player, going 4-0-0 overall. Between 2022 and 2024, he ranked in or near the top quartile in Strokes Gained: Around the Green every season, a typical indicator of success at the course.
