There’s nothing better than late-spring and early-summer golf, and the major championship planners clearly feel that way too. Just five weeks after The Masters Tournament ended, the PGA Championship is already upon us.
Quail Hollow Club on the outskirts of Charlotte will be the host for this weekend’s test, and it’s a track that most of the PGA TOUR’s best are already familiar with. It hosts the annual Truist Championship, although last week’s edition was held at Philadelphia Cricket Club so the course could prepare for this weekend’s major. Given the tournament’s status as a Signature Event, the Truist Championship typically includes some of the world’s best in its field, including Masters champion Rory McIlroy, who has nine Top-10 finishes, including four wins, in 13 appearances at the course.
According DraftKings Sportsbook, this PGA Championship is shaping up to be a two-man battle between McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, whose record-setting win two weeks ago at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson was his first of the season. Scheffler (+450) has a narrow edge, but McIlroy (+500) is right behind him. Bryson DeChambeau (+950) is the only other golfer with better than 10-to-1 odds of lifting the Wannamaker Trophy.
There is no such thing as a sure thing in golf, but we can be fairly confident that at least one of McIlroy, Scheffler, or DeChambeau will go low this weekend. The only question is, how low? DraftKings Sportsbook has set the over-under for the winning score at 273.5 for the par-71 track.
Winning Score Under 273.5 (+105)
Quail Hollow is a fairly tough course, with its difficult complexes around the greens and its 7,626 yards of distance. According to the PGA TOUR’s official statistics, it was the sixth-hardest played on the circuit during the 2024 season, yielding a scoring average 0.732 over par, and it might well play harder under major championship conditions. But raw difficulty isn’t everything when all of the top players in the field have so much course experience; for instance, Augusta National is unequivocally a harder track than Quail Hollow and the winning score has been better than 10-under in six of the past eight seasons.
Of the 19 times that Quail Hollow has hosted the Truist Championship, the winning score has been 11 under par or better in 15 of them, and McIlroy alone has won the title thrice with scores of 273 or better, although the course played to a par 72 in some of those years. It’s worth noting that Justin Thomas won at the course with an eight-under 276 in 2017, the last time the PGA Championship was held there, but that tournament was played in August and the course conditions were firm. North Carolina gets bombarded with rain in the spring, so the Bermuda grass should be softer and more receptive to scoring.
All of the top contenders just fit the course too well for a high score to win. A combination of distance and adept short game typically tends to win at Quail Hollow, and that applies to all three of the favorites. McIlroy he ranks third in driving distance while still being nearly in the top quartile in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and has his aforementioned history at the course. Scheffler ranks ninth in proximity on approaches of over 200 yards and first in scrambling, so his game should be well-suited to the course as well, although his only experience at the venue came in the 2022 Presidents Cup, where he was the worst-performing American. DeChambeau is arguably the best fit, leading LIV Golf in both driving distance and scrambling and coming off a win. All three are capable of reaching 11-under even with their B-games, and I can’t imagine them all three underperforming. One of the favorites will win with a score of 273 or better.
