What in the world is going on in this second round of the NBA Playoffs? Home teams are 0-5 so far, with both the New York Knicks and the Indiana Pacers overcoming 20-point leads, with Indiana coming back from seven points down with under a minute and a half to play.
Two more underdogs — the Knicks and the Denver Nuggets — will try to follow in the Pacers’ footsteps and take a 2-0 lead with the games coming back home for Games 3 and 4, which means there are plenty of star players to roster. Let’s take a look at my three favorites for this Wednesday’s action.
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C Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, $11,000
Because of Jokić’s exorbitant salary, picking him means passing up on the man who’s likely to win MVP, Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($9,600), as well as the Boston Celtics’ Jayson Tatum ($9,200) and New York’s Jalen Brunson ($8,200). But when Jokić does what he did in Game 1 — 42 points, 22 rebounds, six assists, two blocks, and a steal (83.5 FPTS), how can you possibly not pick him? Overall, the Nuggets out-rebounded the Thunder, 63 to 43, and given that Oklahoma City allowed the 11th-most rebounds per game during the regular season, that trend seems sustainable. Jokić did a decent job controlling the glass against the LA Clippers’ Ivica Zubac, an elite rebounder; I shudder for Chet Holmgren ($6,800) and Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,700).
His usage rate in Game 1 was a whopping 37.0%, and he attempted 29 shots, numbers that he has hit in fewer than 20% of his career playoff games. Indeed, perhaps the offense was a little too Jokić-centric in Monday night’s Game 1, given that he coughed up seven turnovers. But if Michael Porter Jr. ($4,600) can’t be trusted — which David Adelman clearly doesn’t — the offense will have to be carried by Jokić, given that Russell Westbrook ($5,000) is a less potent offensive initiator at this stage in his career. I like his chances of putting up immense numbers, which would justify his immense price.
SG/SF Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks, $7,100
Brown and the Celtics had a pretty rough Game 1, missing 45 three-point attempts, the most of any team in a playoff game in NBA history. Although Brown’s stats in the end were fine — 23 points, seven rebounds, and five assists (38.8 FPTS) — the fact that he only made one triple was semi-concerning. He also had the game-losing turnover when Mikal Bridges ($5,900) smothered him on the right wing on the final possession with the Knicks leading by three points. Brown admitted after the game that Boston’s offense needed to diversify, but at some point, shooting luck will normalize; he made just one of his nine three-pointers with at least four feet of separation.
Another player I considered in this spot was New York’s Josh Hart ($6,700), whose rebounding and well-rounded skill-set gives him a fantasy edge, but his usage rate is low and the Celtics have been guarding him with Derrick White ($6,500), a very strong defender. Meanwhile, although Hart is solid on that end in his own right, the only Knicks defender who scares me from a Boston perspective is OG Anunoby ($6,000), who rather effectively hounded Tatum in Game 1. Given Brown’s easier matchup — Hart — vis-a-vis his co-star, it might make more sense for the Celtics to run more of their offense through their Finals MVP tonight.
SG/SF Luguentz Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets, $4,400
I almost went with Alex Caruso ($4,400) on the heels of his 20-point, six-assist, five-steal (45.8-FPT) performance in Game 1, but my colleague Garion already had him covered in his values column. Caruso still stands as a must-start, but so does Dort — maybe the only perimeter defender in the world who’s better than he is. The Memphis Grizzlies’ Ja Morant was put in the Dorture Chamber in the first round, and Jamal Murray ($7,000) didn’t fare a ton better, as in the 41 possessions that Dort guarded him for in Game 1, Murray managed just nine points on three-for-eight shooting, with three assists and two turnovers. With Murray and Westbrook both being fairly turnover-prone players, Dort should have the opportunity to feast defensively, as he did in Game 1 with a one-block, one-steal (23.5-FPT) performance.
His offensive value just depends on whether or not he’s hitting his three-pointers, given that 91.4% of his shot attempts so far these playoffs have come from beyond the arc. In Game 1, he did, making four of his nine triples for 14 points. There’s reason to think his performance is sustainable; not only did Denver throw Murray, one of its worst perimeter defenders, on Dort for most of the game, all nine of his three-point attempts came with more than four feet of separation. During the regular season, he went 163-of-397 (41.1%) on open or wide-open threes, scantly lower than the rate at which he hit them in Game 1. The Nuggets also allowed opponents to shoot the ninth-best percentage from deep during the regular season.
